Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Chelsea FC (67%) · Chelsea FC at 90¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Chelsea FC
6
Chelsea FC 67%
$3.1K
-$691.06
84.1¢ → 89.5¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralChelsea FC at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Chelsea FCavg 84.5¢ | $2.1K | $1.9K | -$161.59 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Liverpool FCavg 17.1¢ | $1.1K | $666.58 | -$418.08 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
DO DolphinBallerCTR | Liverpool FCavg 22¢ | $440 | $320 | -$120 | 49% 85-90 (175) |
CA Cannae | Chelsea FCavg 77.4¢ | $149.31 | $156.35 | +$7.04 | 53% 15742-13912 (29654) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Chelsea FCavg 84.9¢ | $32.7 | $34.08 | +$1.38 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
 RN1<$100 | Chelsea FCavg 87¢ | $33.46 | $33.65 | +$0.19 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
Invested
$2,090.14
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$161.59
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
Invested
$1,084.67
Value
$666.58
PnL
-$418.08
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
Invested
$440
Value
$320
PnL
-$120
Record
49%
85-90 (175)
Invested
$149.31
Value
$156.35
PnL
+$7.04
Record
53%
15742-13912 (29654)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$32.7
Value
$34.08
PnL
+$1.38
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
RN1<$100Invested
$33.46
Value
$33.65
PnL
+$0.19
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.