Chelsea FC leading at halftime?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$2.1K
$240.3
72.7¢ → 100¢
+38% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 72.7¢ | $1.3K | $1.7K | +$371.91 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
0X 0xcba9371dcbbd7a48b477f04274376e1feea9f812CTR | Yesavg 31¢ | $300 | $295.16 | -$4.84 | 25% 91-273 (364) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 27.6¢ | $217.28 | $90.42 | -$126.86 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $5.67 | $5.63 | -$0.04 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.05 | $0.19 | +$0.14 | 60% 9402-6388 (15790) |
Invested
$1,299.18
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$371.91
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
Invested
$300
Value
$295.16
PnL
-$4.84
Record
25%
91-273 (364)
RN1CTRInvested
$217.28
Value
$90.42
PnL
-$126.86
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.67
Value
$5.63
PnL
-$0.04
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$0.05
Value
$0.19
PnL
+$0.14
Record
60%
9402-6388 (15790)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.