Exact Score: Liverpool FC 3 - 2 Chelsea FC?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 94¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$1.4K
$-1.2K
95.8¢ → 93.8¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 95.8¢ | $2.6K | $1.4K | $-1.2K | 58% 40796-29505 (70301) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 95.8¢ | $45.38 | $44.56 | -$0.82 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $26.78 | $14.17 | -$12.61 | 50% 12135-12341 (24476) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 95.2¢ | $21.9 | $11.73 | -$10.17 | 58% 28127-20735 (48862) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$2,586.05
Value
$1.4K
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
58%
40796-29505 (70301)
RN1<$100Invested
$45.38
Value
$44.56
PnL
-$0.82
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Invested
$26.78
Value
$14.17
PnL
-$12.61
Record
50%
12135-12341 (24476)
Invested
$21.9
Value
$11.73
PnL
-$10.17
Record
58%
28127-20735 (48862)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.