Will Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (79%) · No at 71¢ · $25K held · ended Oct 28

Yes30¢No70¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 79%

Total Value

$24.8K

Combined PnL

$516.62

Smart Money Entry

72.5¢ → 70.5¢

-3% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$24.0K

Total Shares32,162

Combined PnL+$484.54

Yes3 traders

Total Value$831.93

Total Shares2,988

Combined PnL+$32.08

No — 79%Yes — 21%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 72¢	$9.8K	$10.0K	+$271.58	50% 2463-2457 (4920)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 72.9¢	$4.2K	$4.3K	+$60.36	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
0010001000001100	Noavg 73¢	$4.6K	$3.5K	+$103.28	65% 1341-723 (2064)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 72¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$60.34	58% 40796-29505 (70301)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 74¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$31.85	51% 1291-1227 (2518)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Noavg 72¢	$936	$962	+$26	54% 4810-4044 (8854)
CA Cannae	Noavg 74.5¢	$845.3	$837.85	-$7.45	53% 15742-13912 (29654)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 27.1¢	$543.56	$570.71	+$27.15	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
RN1	Noavg 73¢	$490.43	$493.79	+$3.36	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Yesavg 26¢	$181.41	$184.9	+$3.49	62% 13617-8456 (22073)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Noavg 74.3¢	$79.2	$78.88	-$0.31	53% 2082-1842 (3924)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$74.88	$76.32	+$1.44	50% 10545-10397 (20942)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 76¢	$41.04	$39.96	-$0.81	58% 28127-20735 (48862)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 73¢	$7.3	$7.35	+$0.05	54% 6053-5127 (11180)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$9,776.82

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$271.58

Record

50%

2463-2457 (4920)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$4,206.16

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$60.36

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

0010001000001100

Invested

$4,598.19

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$103.28

Record

65%

1341-723 (2064)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$2,172.79

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$60.34

Record

58%

40796-29505 (70301)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$1,576.1

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$31.85

Record

51%

1291-1227 (2518)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Invested

$936

Value

$962

PnL

+$26

Record

54%

4810-4044 (8854)

Cannae

Invested

$845.3

Value

$837.85

PnL

-$7.45

Record

53%

15742-13912 (29654)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$543.56

Value

$570.71

PnL

+$27.15

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

RN1

Invested

$490.43

Value

$493.79

PnL

+$3.36

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

LilybaeumCTR

Yes

Invested

$181.41

Value

$184.9

PnL

+$3.49

Record

62%

13617-8456 (22073)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Invested

$79.2

Value

$78.88

PnL

-$0.31

Record

53%

2082-1842 (3924)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.88

Value

$76.32

PnL

+$1.44

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$41.04

Value

$39.96

PnL

-$0.81

Record

58%

28127-20735 (48862)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$7.3

Value

$7.35

PnL

+$0.05

Record

54%

6053-5127 (11180)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.