Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-28?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 64¢ · $47K held · ends Oct 28

Yes37¢No63¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$47.5K

Combined PnL

-$90.94

Smart Money Entry

63¢ → 63.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$11.3K

Total Shares17,985

Combined PnL-$92.38

Yes3 traders

Total Value$858.3

Total Shares2,598

Combined PnL+$1.44

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 62¢	$30.1K	$30.0K	-$115.85	59% 44632-31032 (75664)
└ No leg	Noavg 62¢	$19.9K	$19.8K	-$160.83
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 38.3¢	$10.2K	$10.2K	+$44.97
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 64.8¢	$5.3K	$5.2K	-$125.2	50% 24379-23989 (48368)
└ No leg	Noavg 64.8¢	$3.6K	$3.4K	-$182.43
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37.3¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$57.23
JU Jugar	Noavg 63¢	$4.1K	$4.0K	-$97.2	58% 206-151 (357)
RN1	Noavg 63¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$25	54% 55737-47824 (103561)
0010001000001100	Noavg 63.2¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$57.76	65% 1341-723 (2064)
CA Cannae	Noavg 63.2¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$24.71	53% 15742-13910 (29652)
MA Marios15tCTR	Yesavg 33¢	$818.92	$818.92	-$0	48% 83-89 (172)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 62.3¢	$700.49	$713.57	+$13.08	50% 32789-32345 (65134)
HRTradingARB<$100	Yesavg 38.9¢	$152.94	$151.37	-$1.56	53% 3080-2737 (5817)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 38.9¢	$95.2	$94.33	-$0.88
└ No leg	Noavg 62.2¢	$57.74	$57.05	-$0.69
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$29.76	$31.68	+$1.44	58% 28125-20732 (48857)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Noavg 65.1¢	$23.04	$22.83	-$0.21	53% 2082-1842 (3924)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Yesavg 38.5¢	$7.7	$7.7	+$0	51% 1285-1225 (2510)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$30,092.66

Value

$30.0K

PnL

-$115.85

Record

59%

44632-31032 (75664)

Both legs:

No$19,942.362¢-$160.83

Yes$10,150.3638.3¢+$44.97

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$5,334.48

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$125.2

Record

50%

24379-23989 (48368)

Both legs:

No$3,620.5664.8¢-$182.43

Yes$1,713.9137.3¢+$57.23

Jugar

Invested

$4,082.4

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$97.2

Record

58%

206-151 (357)

RN1

Invested

$3,150

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$25

Record

54%

55737-47824 (103561)

0010001000001100

Invested

$2,148.73

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$57.76

Record

65%

1341-723 (2064)

Cannae

Invested

$1,253.53

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$24.71

Record

53%

15742-13910 (29652)

Marios15tCTR

Yes

Invested

$818.92

Value

$818.92

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

83-89 (172)

SnakeBall

Invested

$700.49

Value

$713.57

PnL

+$13.08

Record

50%

32789-32345 (65134)

HRTradingARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$152.94

Value

$151.37

PnL

-$1.56

Record

53%

3080-2737 (5817)

Both legs:

Invested

$29.76

Value

$31.68

PnL

+$1.44

Record

58%

28125-20732 (48857)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Invested

$23.04

Value

$22.83

PnL

-$0.21

Record

53%

2082-1842 (3924)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.7

Value

$7.7

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1285-1225 (2510)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.