Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (58%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 42¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28

Yes58¢No42¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$152.8

Smart Money Entry

38.5¢ → 42¢

+9% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes58%

No42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares5,076

Combined PnL-$152.75

Yes2 traders

Total Value$8.56

Total Shares15

Combined PnL-$0.05

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AgricultureSecretaryCTR	Noavg 39¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$133.32	83% 3788-772 (4560)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 61.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$43.26	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 61.4¢	$738.82	$649.35	-$89.47
└ No leg	Noavg 41.1¢	$383.79	$430	+$46.21
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 37¢	$1.1K	$210.02	-$31.36	58% 40796-29505 (70301)
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 35.1¢	$169.33	$168.86	-$0.47	53% 15742-13912 (29654)
RN1CTR	Noavg 41¢	$159.05	$164.83	+$5.77	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$61.28	$65.45	+$4.16	50% 12135-12341 (24476)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 39.7¢	$44.34	$45.97	+$1.63	53% 3098-2756 (5854)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$14.81	$15.73	+$1.16	58% 28127-20735 (48862)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$5.61	$5.56	-$0.05	53% 2082-1842 (3924)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$4.07	$3.75	-$0.32	49% 18625-19055 (37680)
FO foooool<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$3	$3	+$0	50% 10545-10397 (20942)

AgricultureSecretaryCTR

Invested

$1,299.87

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$133.32

Record

83%

3788-772 (4560)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,122.61

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$43.26

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

Both legs:

Yes$738.8261.4¢-$89.47

No$383.7941.1¢+$46.21

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$1,080.2

Value

$210.02

PnL

-$31.36

Record

58%

40796-29505 (70301)

CannaeCTR

Invested

$169.33

Value

$168.86

PnL

-$0.47

Record

53%

15742-13912 (29654)

RN1CTR

Invested

$159.05

Value

$164.83

PnL

+$5.77

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$61.28

Value

$65.45

PnL

+$4.16

Record

50%

12135-12341 (24476)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$44.34

Value

$45.97

PnL

+$1.63

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$14.81

Value

$15.73

PnL

+$1.16

Record

58%

28127-20735 (48862)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.61

Value

$5.56

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

2082-1842 (3924)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Invested

$4.07

Value

$3.75

PnL

-$0.32

Record

49%

18625-19055 (37680)

foooool<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 42%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.2%

42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$126.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

226.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.