Fulham FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 73¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
1 arb excluded
$2.5K
$40.61
76.5¢ → 73¢
-5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 76.8¢ | $1.4K | $1.2K | -$196.99 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 24.8¢ | $549.19 | $787.11 | +$237.92 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 71.6¢ | $427.2 | $448.41 | +$21.21 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 29.1¢ | $189.37 | $237.38 | +$48.01 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 71.6¢ | $237.83 | $211.04 | -$26.8 | |
FO foooool<$100 | Overavg 68.6¢ | $46.96 | $48.54 | +$1.59 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 22.3¢ | $15.69 | $13.72 | -$1.97 | 50% 32798-32351 (65149) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 19¢ | $2.28 | $2.34 | +$0.06 | 58% 40796-29505 (70301) |
RN1Invested
$1,429.68
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$196.99
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Invested
$549.19
Value
$787.11
PnL
+$237.92
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
Invested
$427.2
Value
$448.41
PnL
+$21.21
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
Both legs:
Invested
$46.96
Value
$48.54
PnL
+$1.59
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
Invested
$15.69
Value
$13.72
PnL
-$1.97
Record
50%
32798-32351 (65149)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$2.28
Value
$2.34
PnL
+$0.06
Record
58%
40796-29505 (70301)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.