Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Fulham FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 0.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 50%
$6.1K
$3.8K
15.4¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 NooseracCTR | Underavg 15.6¢ | $1.6K | $4.8K | +$3.3K | 52% 5716-5281 (10997) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 15.6¢ | $244.76 | $760.97 | +$516.2 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Underavg 9¢ | $31.92 | $172.26 | +$140.34 | 49% 18625-19055 (37680) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 91¢ | $298.8 | $169.1 | -$129.7 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 95¢ | $114.5 | $81.36 | -$33.14 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
FO foooool<$100 | Overavg 89.6¢ | $40.32 | $23.18 | -$17.15 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
NooseracCTRInvested
$1,560
Value
$4.8K
PnL
+$3.3K
Record
52%
5716-5281 (10997)
RN1CTRInvested
$244.76
Value
$760.97
PnL
+$516.2
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Invested
$31.92
Value
$172.26
PnL
+$140.34
Record
49%
18625-19055 (37680)
Invested
$298.8
Value
$169.1
PnL
-$129.7
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
Invested
$114.5
Value
$81.36
PnL
-$33.14
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
Invested
$40.32
Value
$23.18
PnL
-$17.15
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.