Will Fulham FC win on 2026-10-28?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 52¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 33%
1 arb excluded
$10.9K
$98.57
Research grade
NeutralYes at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JS Jsram | Yesavg 52¢ | $10.7K | $10.7K | +$102.67 | 55% 131-107 (238) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 47.8¢ | $282.65 | $129.9 | -$5.14 | 58% 40752-29469 (70221) |
 HRTradingARB<$100 | Noavg 46.6¢ | $76.26 | $77.12 | +$0.64 | 53% 3047-2709 (5756) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 46.6¢ | $46.58 | $48 | +$0.92 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 53¢ | $29.68 | $29.12 | -$0.28 | |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 47.1¢ | $56.36 | $57.4 | +$1.04 | 53% 15741-13910 (29651) |
Invested
$10,657.89
Value
$10.7K
PnL
+$102.67
Record
55%
131-107 (238)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$282.65
Value
$129.9
PnL
-$5.14
Record
58%
40752-29469 (70221)
HRTradingARB<$100Invested
$76.26
Value
$77.12
PnL
+$0.64
Record
53%
3047-2709 (5756)
Both legs:
Invested
$56.36
Value
$57.4
PnL
+$1.04
Record
53%
15741-13910 (29651)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.