Will Fulham FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw?
9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 71¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 82%
$2.1K
-$68.5
71.4¢ → 70.5¢
-1% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 71¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$37.92 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 73¢ | $586.84 | $550.49 | -$36.36 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 68.5¢ | $153.35 | $155.59 | +$2.24 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $99.11 | $99.84 | +$0.73 | 50% 12135-12341 (24476) |
LI Lilybaeum<$100 | Noavg 69.3¢ | $74.51 | $73.64 | -$0.87 | 62% 13617-8456 (22073) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $70.28 | $69.36 | -$0.92 | 49% 18625-19055 (37680) |
FO foooool<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $64.09 | $62.84 | -$1.25 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
PO poposub<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $38.85 | $42 | +$3.15 | 46% 2045-2435 (4480) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $15.04 | $18.24 | +$3.2 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 71.5¢ | $14.3 | $13.7 | -$0.6 | 54% 6053-5127 (11180) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $2.35 | $2.45 | +$0.1 | 53% 2082-1842 (3924) |
RN1Invested
$1,079.03
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$37.92
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Invested
$586.84
Value
$550.49
PnL
-$36.36
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
Invested
$153.35
Value
$155.59
PnL
+$2.24
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
Invested
$99.11
Value
$99.84
PnL
+$0.73
Record
50%
12135-12341 (24476)
Invested
$74.51
Value
$73.64
PnL
-$0.87
Record
62%
13617-8456 (22073)
Invested
$70.28
Value
$69.36
PnL
-$0.92
Record
49%
18625-19055 (37680)
Invested
$64.09
Value
$62.84
PnL
-$1.25
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
Invested
$38.85
Value
$42
PnL
+$3.15
Record
46%
2045-2435 (4480)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$15.04
Value
$18.24
PnL
+$3.2
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
Invested
$14.3
Value
$13.7
PnL
-$0.6
Record
54%
6053-5127 (11180)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.45
PnL
+$0.1
Record
53%
2082-1842 (3924)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.