Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-10-28?

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 83¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 28

Yes17¢No83¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

-$51.6

Smart Money Entry

80.1¢ → 83¢

+4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,911

Combined PnL-$0.37

Yes7 traders

Total Value$579.91

Total Shares3,180

Combined PnL-$51.23

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KY Kyn008	Noavg 80¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$0	50% 219-221 (440)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 19.5¢	$696.43	$672.52	-$23.91	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 19.5¢	$552.02	$523.5	-$28.53
└ No leg	Noavg 79¢	$144.41	$149.03	+$4.62
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$389.17	$340.38	-$48.8	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 80¢	$293.74	$293.74	+$0	50% 12135-12341 (24476)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 21.1¢	$216.19	$74.08	-$4.15	58% 40796-29505 (70301)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.7¢	$74.88	$72.25	-$2.62	53% 15742-13912 (29654)
PO poposub<$100	Noavg 85¢	$42.2	$41.99	-$0.21	46% 2045-2435 (4480)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.2¢	$35.23	$40.48	+$5.25	50% 32798-32351 (65149)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$27.06	$24.6	-$1.85	58% 28127-20735 (48862)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Noavg 80¢	$23.68	$23.78	+$0.1	62% 13617-8456 (22073)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$20.22	$20.78	+$0.56	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 81¢	$11.08	$10.34	-$0.49	53% 3098-2756 (5854)
GA GamblingOdysseyCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$6.97	$7.34	+$0.37	51% 846-799 (1645)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 82¢	$4.95	$5.16	+$0.21	49% 18625-19055 (37680)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 85¢	$3.66	$3.68	+$0.02	67% 23116-11520 (34636)

Kyn008

Invested

$2,765.9

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

219-221 (440)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$696.43

Value

$672.52

PnL

-$23.91

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

Both legs:

Yes$552.0219.5¢-$28.53

No$144.4179¢+$4.62

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$389.17

Value

$340.38

PnL

-$48.8

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$293.74

Value

$293.74

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

12135-12341 (24476)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$216.19

Value

$74.08

PnL

-$4.15

Record

58%

40796-29505 (70301)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.88

Value

$72.25

PnL

-$2.62

Record

53%

15742-13912 (29654)

poposub<$100

Invested

$42.2

Value

$41.99

PnL

-$0.21

Record

46%

2045-2435 (4480)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.23

Value

$40.48

PnL

+$5.25

Record

50%

32798-32351 (65149)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.06

Value

$24.6

PnL

-$1.85

Record

58%

28127-20735 (48862)

Lilybaeum<$100

Invested

$23.68

Value

$23.78

PnL

+$0.1

Record

62%

13617-8456 (22073)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.22

Value

$20.78

PnL

+$0.56

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$11.08

Value

$10.34

PnL

-$0.49

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

GamblingOdysseyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.97

Value

$7.34

PnL

+$0.37

Record

51%

846-799 (1645)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$5.16

PnL

+$0.21

Record

49%

18625-19055 (37680)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$3.66

Value

$3.68

PnL

+$0.02

Record

67%

23116-11520 (34636)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.7%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.