Fulham FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 51¢ · $775 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$775.35
$5.76
44.3¢ → 51¢
+15% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 44.6¢ | $536.52 | $544.07 | +$7.55 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
 AbdihakeemCTR | Yesavg 67¢ | $114.34 | $113.49 | -$0.85 | 51% 80-78 (158) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $74.97 | $75.74 | +$0.77 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
 AgricultureSecretary<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $31.63 | $30.85 | -$0.77 | 83% 3788-772 (4560) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $5.88 | $5.6 | -$0.28 | 50% 32798-32351 (65149) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 48.9¢ | $5.72 | $4.5 | -$1.21 | 53% 2082-1842 (3924) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $24.22 | $0.69 | +$0.55 | 58% 40796-29505 (70301) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 25¢ | $0.33 | $0.35 | +$0.01 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
Invested
$536.52
Value
$544.07
PnL
+$7.55
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
AbdihakeemCTRInvested
$114.34
Value
$113.49
PnL
-$0.85
Record
51%
80-78 (158)
Invested
$74.97
Value
$75.74
PnL
+$0.77
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
AgricultureSecretary<$100Invested
$31.63
Value
$30.85
PnL
-$0.77
Record
83%
3788-772 (4560)
Invested
$5.88
Value
$5.6
PnL
-$0.28
Record
50%
32798-32351 (65149)
Invested
$5.72
Value
$4.5
PnL
-$1.21
Record
53%
2082-1842 (3924)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$24.22
Value
$0.69
PnL
+$0.55
Record
58%
40796-29505 (70301)
RN1<$100Invested
$0.33
Value
$0.35
PnL
+$0.01
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.