Fleetwood Town FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 6.5

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27

Over1¢Under99¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$2.43

Smart Money Entry

91.6¢ → 99¢

+8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,444

Combined PnL-$2.85

Over1 trader

Total Value$7.2

Total Shares85

Combined PnL+$0.42

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 92¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$9.6	50% 32622-32156 (64778)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 90¢	$399.71	$406.69	+$6.98	59% 44322-30683 (75005)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 95¢	$149.02	$142.3	-$6.72	50% 24148-23764 (47912)
└ Under leg	Underavg 95¢	$95	$91.5	-$3.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 9¢	$54.02	$50.8	-$3.22
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 91.8¢	$79.84	$79.6	-$0.23	58% 27884-20523 (48407)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 8¢	$6.78	$7.2	+$0.42	54% 2639-2268 (4907)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$1,766.86

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$9.6

Record

50%

32622-32156 (64778)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$399.71

Value

$406.69

PnL

+$6.98

Record

59%

44322-30683 (75005)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$149.02

Value

$142.3

PnL

-$6.72

Record

50%

24148-23764 (47912)

Both legs:

Invested

$79.84

Value

$79.6

PnL

-$0.23

Record

58%

27884-20523 (48407)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.78

Value

$7.2

PnL

+$0.42

Record

54%

2639-2268 (4907)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.