Fleetwood Town FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 5.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 95¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$2.3K
-$75.29
83.3¢ → 94.5¢
+13% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 83.6¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$83.27 | 50% 24148-23764 (47912) |
FO foooool | Underavg 82.9¢ | $203.85 | $204.15 | +$0.3 | 50% 10448-10312 (20760) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 82¢ | $196.25 | $184.29 | -$2.39 | 58% 40458-29241 (69699) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 14.6¢ | $251.73 | $94.61 | -$157.12 | 54% 55386-47442 (102828) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 82¢ | $54.12 | $54.78 | +$0.66 | 58% 27884-20523 (48407) |
Invested
$1,710.08
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$83.27
Record
50%
24148-23764 (47912)
Invested
$203.85
Value
$204.15
PnL
+$0.3
Record
50%
10448-10312 (20760)
VeryLucky888Invested
$196.25
Value
$184.29
PnL
-$2.39
Record
58%
40458-29241 (69699)
RN1CTRInvested
$251.73
Value
$94.61
PnL
-$157.12
Record
54%
55386-47442 (102828)
Invested
$54.12
Value
$54.78
PnL
+$0.66
Record
58%
27884-20523 (48407)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.