Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (75%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Fleetwood Town FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 26¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 80%
$1.7K
$55.45
25.3¢ → 25.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 25.3¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$43.45 | 50% 24101-23732 (47833) |
CA CannaeCTR | Underavg 25.2¢ | $376.02 | $388.68 | +$12.67 | 53% 15683-13856 (29539) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 25.7¢ | $192.5 | $191.25 | -$1.25 | 58% 40382-29168 (69550) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 26¢ | $29.64 | $29.64 | +$0.57 | 58% 27869-20504 (48373) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 74¢ | $2.96 | $2.98 | +$0.02 | 54% 2558-2193 (4751) |
Invested
$1,046.42
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$43.45
Record
50%
24101-23732 (47833)
Invested
$376.02
Value
$388.68
PnL
+$12.67
Record
53%
15683-13856 (29539)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$192.5
Value
$191.25
PnL
-$1.25
Record
58%
40382-29168 (69550)
Invested
$29.64
Value
$29.64
PnL
+$0.57
Record
58%
27869-20504 (48373)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.96
Value
$2.98
PnL
+$0.02
Record
54%
2558-2193 (4751)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.