Fleetwood Town FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (86%) · Over at 100¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 86%
$8.0K
-$78.44
98.8¢ → 100¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PU purplegatto | Overavg 98.4¢ | $4.5K | $4.5K | -$9.57 | 50% 5747-5847 (11594) |
N. n.maga | Overavg 99.9¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | -$42.6 | 64% 562-323 (885) |
LU LuckyLoo | Overavg 97.8¢ | $591.69 | $593.81 | +$2.12 | 50% 11976-12131 (24107) |
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 97.8¢ | $486.71 | $473.13 | -$13.58 | 59% 44322-30683 (75005) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Underavg 2.8¢ | $43.09 | $28.29 | -$14.79 | 50% 24148-23764 (47912) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 97.9¢ | $20.76 | $20.73 | -$0.03 | 54% 2639-2268 (4907) |
0X 0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609<$100 | Overavg 97.8¢ | $5.34 | $5.36 | +$0.02 | 82% 2329-526 (2855) |
Invested
$4,505.41
Value
$4.5K
PnL
-$9.57
Record
50%
5747-5847 (11594)
Invested
$2,431.87
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$42.6
Record
64%
562-323 (885)
Invested
$591.69
Value
$593.81
PnL
+$2.12
Record
50%
11976-12131 (24107)
Invested
$486.71
Value
$473.13
PnL
-$13.58
Record
59%
44322-30683 (75005)
Invested
$43.09
Value
$28.29
PnL
-$14.79
Record
50%
24148-23764 (47912)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$20.76
Value
$20.73
PnL
-$0.03
Record
54%
2639-2268 (4907)
Invested
$5.34
Value
$5.36
PnL
+$0.02
Record
82%
2329-526 (2855)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.