Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Arsenal FC leading at halftime?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 40%
1 arb excluded
$4.2K
$2.0K
6.2¢ → 0.1¢
-99% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 6.1¢ | $334.71 | $2.3K | +$2.0K | 54% 55386-47442 (102828) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 65.4¢ | $1.3K | $1.7K | +$352.01 | 50% 24148-23764 (47912) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 11.9¢ | $193.61 | $960.22 | +$766.62 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 65.4¢ | $1.1K | $696.27 | -$414.61 | |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 91.1¢ | $97.83 | $85.33 | -$12.49 | 54% 2639-2268 (4907) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $10.57 | $77.95 | +$67.38 | 49% 18442-18863 (37305) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 27.1¢ | $47.88 | $72.43 | +$24.56 | 58% 27884-20523 (48407) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $48.07 | $25.93 | -$22.14 | 50% 11976-12131 (24107) |
RN1CTRInvested
$334.71
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$2.0K
Record
54%
55386-47442 (102828)
Invested
$1,304.49
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$352.01
Record
50%
24148-23764 (47912)
Both legs:
HRTrading<$100Invested
$97.83
Value
$85.33
PnL
-$12.49
Record
54%
2639-2268 (4907)
Invested
$10.57
Value
$77.95
PnL
+$67.38
Record
49%
18442-18863 (37305)
Invested
$47.88
Value
$72.43
PnL
+$24.56
Record
58%
27884-20523 (48407)
Invested
$48.07
Value
$25.93
PnL
-$22.14
Record
50%
11976-12131 (24107)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.