Will Fleetwood Town FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 80¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27

Yes21¢No79¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$238.78

Smart Money Entry

91.5¢ → 79.5¢

-13% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,371

Combined PnL-$5.84

Yes3 traders

Total Value$405.7

Total Shares2,200

Combined PnL+$244.62

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Noavg 94¢	$522.92	$525.7	-$2.78	53% 2036-1804 (3840)
CA Cannae	Noavg 93.2¢	$487.61	$490.99	-$2.68	53% 15683-13857 (29540)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 7.8¢	$81.38	$193.14	+$111.76	59% 44310-30670 (74980)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 6¢	$48.99	$142.89	+$93.9	58% 40444-29225 (69669)
LI Lilybaeum	Noavg 80¢	$131.97	$135.55	+$3.58	62% 13579-8420 (21999)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Noavg 91¢	$91	$91	+$0	51% 1212-1148 (2360)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$30.71	$69.67	+$38.96	50% 24141-23759 (47900)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 82¢	$45.56	$45.28	-$0.28	50% 32615-32151 (64766)
RN1<$100	Noavg 92.6¢	$39.51	$36.3	-$3.22	54% 55371-47422 (102793)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 93¢	$32.54	$32.54	-$0	58% 27876-20518 (48394)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 93¢	$3.73	$3.28	-$0.46	54% 2625-2252 (4877)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Invested

$522.92

Value

$525.7

PnL

-$2.78

Record

53%

2036-1804 (3840)

Cannae

Invested

$487.61

Value

$490.99

PnL

-$2.68

Record

53%

15683-13857 (29540)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$81.38

Value

$193.14

PnL

+$111.76

Record

59%

44310-30670 (74980)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$48.99

Value

$142.89

PnL

+$93.9

Record

58%

40444-29225 (69669)

Lilybaeum

Invested

$131.97

Value

$135.55

PnL

+$3.58

Record

62%

13579-8420 (21999)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Invested

$91

Value

$91

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1212-1148 (2360)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.71

Value

$69.67

PnL

+$38.96

Record

50%

24141-23759 (47900)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$45.56

Value

$45.28

PnL

-$0.28

Record

50%

32615-32151 (64766)

RN1<$100

Invested

$39.51

Value

$36.3

PnL

-$3.22

Record

54%

55371-47422 (102793)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$32.54

Value

$32.54

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

27876-20518 (48394)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$3.73

Value

$3.28

PnL

-$0.46

Record

54%

2625-2252 (4877)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.