Fleetwood Town FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 65¢ · $295 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$294.86
-$0.62
64.1¢ → 64.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 64¢ | $133.12 | $131.04 | -$2.08 | 59% 44243-30611 (74854) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 64.2¢ | $80.12 | $79.87 | -$0.87 | 58% 40372-29160 (69532) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 36¢ | $51.01 | $52.43 | +$1.42 | 58% 27868-20503 (48371) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35.8¢ | $28.42 | $29.37 | +$0.95 | 53% 15683-13856 (29539) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 64.5¢ | $2.16 | $2.14 | -$0.03 | 54% 2551-2184 (4735) |
Invested
$133.12
Value
$131.04
PnL
-$2.08
Record
59%
44243-30611 (74854)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$80.12
Value
$79.87
PnL
-$0.87
Record
58%
40372-29160 (69532)
Invested
$51.01
Value
$52.43
PnL
+$1.42
Record
58%
27868-20503 (48371)
Invested
$28.42
Value
$29.37
PnL
+$0.95
Record
53%
15683-13856 (29539)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.16
Value
$2.14
PnL
-$0.03
Record
54%
2551-2184 (4735)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.