Everton FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (69%) · Under at 62¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 29

Over39¢Under61¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.1K

Combined PnL

-$407.76

Smart Money Entry

63.1¢ → 61.5¢

-3% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over39%

Under62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares9,506

Combined PnL-$265.23

Over4 traders

Total Value$754.81

Total Shares2,210

Combined PnL-$142.53

Under — 69%Over — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 65.3¢	$4.0K	$3.7K	-$328.85	50% 24706-24393 (49099)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 38.6¢	$2.7K	$3.1K	+$451.71	54% 56053-48184 (104237)
└ Over leg	Overavg 38.6¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$255.79
└ Under leg	Underavg 47¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$195.91
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 53.2¢	$869.49	$825.76	-$43.73	49% 671-693 (1364)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 65¢	$656.26	$696.38	+$45.15	58% 41266-29916 (71182)
NO NordhavenCapCTR	Overavg 41¢	$652.29	$517.06	-$135.23	57% 2136-1591 (3727)
KY Kyn008	Underavg 65.2¢	$459.92	$490.55	+$30.63	50% 231-233 (464)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Underavg 65¢	$303.73	$324.75	+$21.03	54% 4827-4065 (8892)
DA dartanyan150CTR	Overavg 53¢	$106	$107	+$1	58% 242-178 (420)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Underavg 66¢	$88.64	$93.34	+$4.7	53% 2127-1893 (4020)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Overavg 33.3¢	$90.45	$82.88	-$7.57	59% 45140-31520 (76660)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 65¢	$64.35	$68.8	+$4.45	58% 28259-20841 (49100)
MA manoamanoCTR<$100	Overavg 33¢	$48.61	$47.87	-$0.74	51% 457-445 (902)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 69¢	$25.53	$25.35	-$0.18	52% 3741-3403 (7144)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 44¢	$9.27	$10.85	+$1.58	59% 9718-6703 (16421)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$3,987.07

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$328.85

Record

50%

24706-24393 (49099)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,664.38

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$451.71

Record

54%

56053-48184 (104237)

Both legs:

Over$1,435.6138.6¢+$255.79

Under$1,228.7847¢+$195.91

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$869.49

Value

$825.76

PnL

-$43.73

Record

49%

671-693 (1364)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$656.26

Value

$696.38

PnL

+$45.15

Record

58%

41266-29916 (71182)

NordhavenCapCTR

Over

Invested

$652.29

Value

$517.06

PnL

-$135.23

Record

57%

2136-1591 (3727)

Kyn008

Under

Invested

$459.92

Value

$490.55

PnL

+$30.63

Record

50%

231-233 (464)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Under

Invested

$303.73

Value

$324.75

PnL

+$21.03

Record

54%

4827-4065 (8892)

dartanyan150CTR

Over

Invested

$106

Value

$107

PnL

+$1

Record

58%

242-178 (420)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Under

Invested

$88.64

Value

$93.34

PnL

+$4.7

Record

53%

2127-1893 (4020)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$90.45

Value

$82.88

PnL

-$7.57

Record

59%

45140-31520 (76660)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$64.35

Value

$68.8

PnL

+$4.45

Record

58%

28259-20841 (49100)

manoamanoCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$48.61

Value

$47.87

PnL

-$0.74

Record

51%

457-445 (902)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$25.53

Value

$25.35

PnL

-$0.18

Record

52%

3741-3403 (7144)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$9.27

Value

$10.85

PnL

+$1.58

Record

59%

9718-6703 (16421)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 62%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.