Everton FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 57¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 50%
$1.2K
-$8.39
58¢ → 57¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ComingBack | Overavg 58¢ | $1,000 | $982.76 | -$8.62 | 61% 3900-2449 (6349) |
CA CannaeCTR | Underavg 42.1¢ | $145.53 | $145.24 | -$0.3 | 53% 15855-14038 (29893) |
KY Kyn008CTR<$100 | Underavg 42¢ | $21.98 | $22.5 | +$0.52 | 50% 231-233 (464) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Overavg 57¢ | $9.8 | $9.8 | +$0 | 53% 2127-1893 (4020) |
ComingBackInvested
$1,000
Value
$982.76
PnL
-$8.62
Record
61%
3900-2449 (6349)
Invested
$145.53
Value
$145.24
PnL
-$0.3
Record
53%
15855-14038 (29893)
Invested
$21.98
Value
$22.5
PnL
+$0.52
Record
50%
231-233 (464)
Invested
$9.8
Value
$9.8
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
2127-1893 (4020)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.