Everton FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (45%) · Over at 100¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 29

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 45%

Total Value

$11.6K

Combined PnL

$417.33

Smart Money Entry

68.1¢ → 100¢

+47% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$10.2K

Total Shares12,394

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares8,297

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Over — 45%Under — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dartanyan150	Overavg 66¢	$6.6K	$8.1K	+$1.5K	58% 242-178 (420)
RN1CTR	Underavg 34¢	$2.4K	$1.3K	$-1.1K	54% 56053-48184 (104237)
MR MrBently	Overavg 66¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$228	53% 530-477 (1007)
ZaiZoiBele	Overavg 98¢	$662.43	$651.76	+$7.72	80% 4996-1235 (6231)
NO NordhavenCap	Overavg 93¢	$164.41	$154.68	-$9.72	57% 2136-1591 (3727)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 33.6¢	$84.44	$47.75	-$36.69	52% 3741-3403 (7144)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Overavg 81¢	$33.93	$33.93	-$0	53% 2127-1893 (4020)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$33.31	$18.61	-$14.7	49% 18854-19262 (38116)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$7.75	$7.36	-$0.39	53% 15858-14039 (29897)
KY Kyn008CTR<$100	Underavg 19.7¢	$7.37	$1.44	-$0.01	50% 231-233 (464)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 23.5¢	$200.35	$0.43	-$199.93	50% 24706-24393 (49099)

dartanyan150

Over

Invested

$6,599.97

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

58%

242-178 (420)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$2,396.21

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

54%

56053-48184 (104237)

MrBently

Over

Invested

$1,003.18

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$228

Record

53%

530-477 (1007)

ZaiZoiBele

Over

Invested

$662.43

Value

$651.76

PnL

+$7.72

Record

80%

4996-1235 (6231)

NordhavenCap

Over

Invested

$164.41

Value

$154.68

PnL

-$9.72

Record

57%

2136-1591 (3727)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$84.44

Value

$47.75

PnL

-$36.69

Record

52%

3741-3403 (7144)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Over

Invested

$33.93

Value

$33.93

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

2127-1893 (4020)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.31

Value

$18.61

PnL

-$14.7

Record

49%

18854-19262 (38116)

CannaeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.75

Value

$7.36

PnL

-$0.39

Record

53%

15858-14039 (29897)

Kyn008CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.37

Value

$1.44

PnL

-$0.01

Record

50%

231-233 (464)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$200.35

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$199.93

Record

50%

24706-24393 (49099)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.