Everton FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 0.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 57%
$6.6K
$-1.6K
96.5¢ → 100¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N. n.maga | Overavg 99.9¢ | $4.8K | $4.8K | +$2.4 | 63% 567-327 (894) |
CB Cbs710 | Overavg 91.2¢ | $2.9K | $1.6K | $-1.3K | 75% 104-34 (138) |
 HRTradingCTR | Underavg 7.8¢ | $21.16 | $133.27 | +$112.1 | 52% 3741-3403 (7144) |
 ZaiZoiBele<$100 | Overavg 98.9¢ | $44.95 | $45.43 | +$0.48 | 80% 4996-1235 (6231) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 9.8¢ | $26.77 | $29.35 | +$2.59 | 54% 56053-48184 (104237) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Overavg 91.5¢ | $23.27 | $12.97 | -$10.3 | 49% 18854-19262 (38116) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 7.9¢ | $403.84 | $2.55 | -$401.29 | 50% 24706-24393 (49099) |
Invested
$4,791.69
Value
$4.8K
PnL
+$2.4
Record
63%
567-327 (894)
Invested
$2,900
Value
$1.6K
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
75%
104-34 (138)
HRTradingCTRInvested
$21.16
Value
$133.27
PnL
+$112.1
Record
52%
3741-3403 (7144)
ZaiZoiBele<$100Invested
$44.95
Value
$45.43
PnL
+$0.48
Record
80%
4996-1235 (6231)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$26.77
Value
$29.35
PnL
+$2.59
Record
54%
56053-48184 (104237)
Invested
$23.27
Value
$12.97
PnL
-$10.3
Record
49%
18854-19262 (38116)
Invested
$403.84
Value
$2.55
PnL
-$401.29
Record
50%
24706-24393 (49099)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.