Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-10-29?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 68¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$6.9K
$110.72
68.7¢ → 67.5¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MR MrBently | Noavg 69¢ | $4.8K | $4.8K | +$69.24 | 53% 528-476 (1004) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 68¢ | $656.63 | $675.94 | +$19.31 | 50% 24686-24362 (49048) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 67.7¢ | $603.21 | $623.53 | +$20.31 | 53% 15855-14033 (29888) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 68.1¢ | $414.9 | $411.16 | -$3.74 | 58% 41209-29876 (71085) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR | Yesavg 30¢ | $824.39 | $251.44 | +$4.12 | 53% 2127-1893 (4020) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 68.4¢ | $78.01 | $79.8 | +$1.79 | 58% 28254-20837 (49091) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $20.12 | $19.79 | -$0.32 | 38% 365-591 (956) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $8.35 | $8.35 | -$0 | 50% 33056-32625 (65681) |
Invested
$4,777.55
Value
$4.8K
PnL
+$69.24
Record
53%
528-476 (1004)
Invested
$656.63
Value
$675.94
PnL
+$19.31
Record
50%
24686-24362 (49048)
Invested
$603.21
Value
$623.53
PnL
+$20.31
Record
53%
15855-14033 (29888)
VeryLucky888Invested
$414.9
Value
$411.16
PnL
-$3.74
Record
58%
41209-29876 (71085)
Invested
$824.39
Value
$251.44
PnL
+$4.12
Record
53%
2127-1893 (4020)
Invested
$78.01
Value
$79.8
PnL
+$1.79
Record
58%
28254-20837 (49091)
Invested
$20.12
Value
$19.79
PnL
-$0.32
Record
38%
365-591 (956)
Invested
$8.35
Value
$8.35
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
33056-32625 (65681)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.