Will Everton FC win on 2026-10-29?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 59¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$1.7K
$6.19
58.4¢ → 59¢
+1% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+6 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ComingBack | Noavg 59¢ | $1,000 | $1,000 | -$8.47 | 61% 3900-2449 (6349) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 57.3¢ | $410.61 | $422.69 | +$12.07 | 59% 45116-31500 (76616) |
28 2829<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $73.53 | $76.11 | +$0.65 | 46% 411-485 (896) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $69.44 | $70.64 | +$1.2 | 58% 41239-29904 (71143) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $63.13 | $63.13 | -$0 | 58% 28255-20837 (49092) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $49.69 | $50.13 | +$0.44 | 38% 365-593 (958) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 41.9¢ | $13.27 | $13.35 | +$0.04 | 53% 2127-1893 (4020) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $10.41 | $10.77 | +$0.27 | 53% 15855-14038 (29893) |
 0010001000001100<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $0.83 | $0.83 | +$0 | 65% 1353-725 (2078) |
ComingBackInvested
$1,000
Value
$1,000
PnL
-$8.47
Record
61%
3900-2449 (6349)
Invested
$410.61
Value
$422.69
PnL
+$12.07
Record
59%
45116-31500 (76616)
Invested
$73.53
Value
$76.11
PnL
+$0.65
Record
46%
411-485 (896)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$69.44
Value
$70.64
PnL
+$1.2
Record
58%
41239-29904 (71143)
Invested
$63.13
Value
$63.13
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
28255-20837 (49092)
Invested
$49.69
Value
$50.13
PnL
+$0.44
Record
38%
365-593 (958)
Invested
$13.27
Value
$13.35
PnL
+$0.04
Record
53%
2127-1893 (4020)
Invested
$10.41
Value
$10.77
PnL
+$0.27
Record
53%
15855-14038 (29893)
0010001000001100<$100Invested
$0.83
Value
$0.83
PnL
+$0
Record
65%
1353-725 (2078)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.