Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (62%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Everton FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 38¢ · $471 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$470.85
$5.76
37.8¢ → 38¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 62%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA CannaeCTR | Noavg 37.8¢ | $181.42 | $182.19 | +$0.77 | 53% 15855-14038 (29893) |
FO Forecastication2 | Yesavg 62¢ | $123.38 | $123.38 | -$1 | 50% 6901-6894 (13795) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 37.6¢ | $245.54 | $122.34 | +$5.98 | 58% 41239-29904 (71143) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $42.94 | $42.94 | +$0 | 58% 28255-20837 (49092) |
Invested
$181.42
Value
$182.19
PnL
+$0.77
Record
53%
15855-14038 (29893)
Invested
$123.38
Value
$123.38
PnL
-$1
Record
50%
6901-6894 (13795)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$245.54
Value
$122.34
PnL
+$5.98
Record
58%
41239-29904 (71143)
Invested
$42.94
Value
$42.94
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
28255-20837 (49092)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.