Spread: Bradford City AFC (-1.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Peterborough United FC (40%) · Peterborough United FC at 66¢ · $457 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Peterborough United FC
5
Peterborough United FC 40%
$457.25
-$0.53
63.8¢ → 66¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralPeterborough United FC at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SA Saber-greed | Peterborough United FCavg 64¢ | $221.32 | $235.15 | +$13.83 | 59% 2505-1737 (4242) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Bradford City AFCavg 36¢ | $151.41 | $132.3 | -$16.61 | 58% 40375-29164 (69539) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Peterborough United FCavg 63¢ | $53.55 | $57.8 | +$4.25 | 58% 27868-20503 (48371) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Bradford City AFCavg 34¢ | $29.75 | $28 | -$1.75 | 50% 24101-23732 (47833) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Bradford City AFCavg 34¢ | $4.25 | $4 | -$0.25 | 59% 44243-30611 (74854) |
Invested
$221.32
Value
$235.15
PnL
+$13.83
Record
59%
2505-1737 (4242)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$151.41
Value
$132.3
PnL
-$16.61
Record
58%
40375-29164 (69539)
Invested
$53.55
Value
$57.8
PnL
+$4.25
Record
58%
27868-20503 (48371)
Invested
$29.75
Value
$28
PnL
-$1.75
Record
50%
24101-23732 (47833)
Invested
$4.25
Value
$4
PnL
-$0.25
Record
59%
44243-30611 (74854)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.