Will Bradford City AFC win on 2026-10-27?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 59¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
1 arb excluded
$1.7K
-$14.82
58.9¢ → 58.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Yesavg 59¢ | $826.59 | $840.6 | +$14.01 | 54% 55313-47351 (102664) |
 us391CTR | Noavg 41¢ | $465.62 | $431.55 | -$28.39 | 51% 1630-1570 (3200) |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 58.5¢ | $367.18 | $292.51 | -$0.56 | 58% 40375-29164 (69539) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $95.6 | $95.6 | -$0 | 58% 27868-20503 (48371) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 40¢ | $58.4 | $58.4 | -$0 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 60¢ | $37.2 | $37.2 | +$0 | |
CA Cannae<$100 | Yesavg 60¢ | $56.6 | $56.6 | +$0 | 53% 15683-13856 (29539) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 59.7¢ | $25.88 | $26.01 | +$0.13 | 54% 2554-2186 (4740) |
RN1Invested
$826.59
Value
$840.6
PnL
+$14.01
Record
54%
55313-47351 (102664)
us391CTRInvested
$465.62
Value
$431.55
PnL
-$28.39
Record
51%
1630-1570 (3200)
VeryLucky888Invested
$367.18
Value
$292.51
PnL
-$0.56
Record
58%
40375-29164 (69539)
Invested
$95.6
Value
$95.6
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
27868-20503 (48371)
Both legs:
Invested
$56.6
Value
$56.6
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
15683-13856 (29539)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$25.88
Value
$26.01
PnL
+$0.13
Record
54%
2554-2186 (4740)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.