Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (64%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

AFC Bournemouth vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (78%) · Under at 37¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 28

Over64¢Under36¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

-$115.09

Smart Money Entry

38.9¢ → 36.5¢

-6% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Over 64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over64%

Under37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares6,056

Combined PnL-$111.47

Over2 traders

Total Value$52.09

Total Shares64

Combined PnL-$3.62

Under — 78%Over — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 60.7¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$37.3	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
└ Over leg	Overavg 60.7¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$37.65
└ Under leg	Underavg 38¢	$734.62	$734.27	-$0.34
ComingBackCTR	Underavg 39¢	$1.0K	$974.36	-$12.82	61% 3850-2418 (6268)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 40.5¢	$877	$563.13	-$47.77	58% 40796-29505 (70301)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 41¢	$299.3	$277.4	-$21.9	51% 1291-1227 (2518)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 33¢	$253.73	$234.59	-$19.14	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
CA CannaeCTR	Underavg 40.1¢	$198.05	$187.6	-$10.45	53% 15742-13912 (29654)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Overavg 74¢	$36.84	$33.09	-$3.75	62% 13617-8456 (22073)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 74¢	$18.87	$19	+$0.13	50% 12135-12341 (24476)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 31.5¢	$3.67	$4.44	+$0.76	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$2.08	$1.93	-$0.15	50% 10545-10397 (20942)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,429.26

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$37.3

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

Both legs:

Over$1,694.6460.7¢+$37.65

Under$734.6238¢-$0.34

ComingBackCTR

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$974.36

PnL

-$12.82

Record

61%

3850-2418 (6268)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$877

Value

$563.13

PnL

-$47.77

Record

58%

40796-29505 (70301)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$299.3

Value

$277.4

PnL

-$21.9

Record

51%

1291-1227 (2518)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$253.73

Value

$234.59

PnL

-$19.14

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

CannaeCTR

Under

Invested

$198.05

Value

$187.6

PnL

-$10.45

Record

53%

15742-13912 (29654)

Lilybaeum<$100

Over

Invested

$36.84

Value

$33.09

PnL

-$3.75

Record

62%

13617-8456 (22073)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$18.87

Value

$19

PnL

+$0.13

Record

50%

12135-12341 (24476)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.67

Value

$4.44

PnL

+$0.76

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.08

Value

$1.93

PnL

-$0.15

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 37%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Over 64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.7%

36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$158.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

258.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.