Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
AFC Bournemouth vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 75%
$3.1K
-$976.38
16.9¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 84¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$0 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
CA CannaeCTR | Underavg 17.7¢ | $934.59 | $1.1K | +$175.03 | 53% 15742-13912 (29654) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 15.8¢ | $447.79 | $325.73 | -$122.05 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
LU LuckyLoo | Overavg 90¢ | $241.47 | $244.15 | +$2.68 | 50% 12135-12341 (24476) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 17.8¢ | $280.26 | $181.41 | -$98.85 | 58% 40796-29505 (70301) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 18¢ | $16.39 | $10.47 | -$5.92 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 16.3¢ | $935.58 | $8.25 | -$927.33 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 19¢ | $0.47 | $0.52 | +$0.05 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
RN1Invested
$1,203.72
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Invested
$934.59
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$175.03
Record
53%
15742-13912 (29654)
Invested
$447.79
Value
$325.73
PnL
-$122.05
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
Invested
$241.47
Value
$244.15
PnL
+$2.68
Record
50%
12135-12341 (24476)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$280.26
Value
$181.41
PnL
-$98.85
Record
58%
40796-29505 (70301)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$16.39
Value
$10.47
PnL
-$5.92
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
Invested
$935.58
Value
$8.25
PnL
-$927.33
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
Invested
$0.47
Value
$0.52
PnL
+$0.05
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.