Aston Villa FC leading at halftime?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $164 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$163.89
$26.11
78.2¢ → 100¢
+28% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AR ARocky33<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $71.36 | $66.96 | -$4.41 | 76% 3927-1248 (5175) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $79.42 | $43.86 | +$1.67 | 58% 40796-29505 (70301) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $6.42 | $30.8 | +$24.38 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $16.74 | $21.14 | +$4.4 | 60% 9402-6388 (15790) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $1.08 | $1.14 | +$0.06 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
Invested
$71.36
Value
$66.96
PnL
-$4.41
Record
76%
3927-1248 (5175)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$79.42
Value
$43.86
PnL
+$1.67
Record
58%
40796-29505 (70301)
Invested
$6.42
Value
$30.8
PnL
+$24.38
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$16.74
Value
$21.14
PnL
+$4.4
Record
60%
9402-6388 (15790)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.08
Value
$1.14
PnL
+$0.06
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.