Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw?
6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 99¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 60%
$7.5K
$8.76
90.8¢ → 99.5¢
+10% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 84¢ | $3.1K | $3.5K | +$335.41 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
 RN1 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $3.3K | $3.2K | -$19.66 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 97¢ | $834.85 | $556.01 | -$278.84 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 84.8¢ | $58.77 | $56.87 | -$1.9 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $53.28 | $54.34 | +$1.07 | 53% 15742-13912 (29654) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $34.5 | $32.25 | -$2.25 | 60% 9402-6388 (15790) |
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.7¢ | $50.17 | $23.67 | -$26.5 | 62% 13617-8456 (22073) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $12.3 | $14.17 | +$1.87 | 54% 6053-5127 (11180) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $12 | $11.7 | -$0.3 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $10 | $9.85 | -$0.15 | 67% 23116-11520 (34636) |
Invested
$3,138.15
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$335.41
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
RN1Invested
$3,257.22
Value
$3.2K
PnL
-$19.66
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Invested
$834.85
Value
$556.01
PnL
-$278.84
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$58.77
Value
$56.87
PnL
-$1.9
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
Invested
$53.28
Value
$54.34
PnL
+$1.07
Record
53%
15742-13912 (29654)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$34.5
Value
$32.25
PnL
-$2.25
Record
60%
9402-6388 (15790)
Invested
$50.17
Value
$23.67
PnL
-$26.5
Record
62%
13617-8456 (22073)
Invested
$12.3
Value
$14.17
PnL
+$1.87
Record
54%
6053-5127 (11180)
Invested
$12
Value
$11.7
PnL
-$0.3
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
Invested
$10
Value
$9.85
PnL
-$0.15
Record
67%
23116-11520 (34636)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.