AFC Bournemouth vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 63¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28

Yes37¢No63¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$655.27

Smart Money Entry

38.5¢ → 63¢

+64% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares6,112

Combined PnL+$654.21

Yes3 traders

Total Value$38.36

Total Shares62

Combined PnL+$1.05

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 39¢	$1.9K	$2.4K	+$532.4	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 35.6¢	$355.31	$474.06	+$118.76	50% 32798-32351 (65149)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Yesavg 66.5¢	$125.97	$120.28	-$5.69	50% 10545-10397 (20942)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 66.5¢	$101.18	$95.16	-$6.02
└ No leg	Noavg 37¢	$24.79	$25.13	+$0.34
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 37.5¢	$78.76	$77.65	-$1.11	53% 15742-13912 (29654)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$32.74	$33.81	+$1.07	49% 18625-19055 (37680)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 42¢	$22.12	$26.25	+$4.13	53% 3098-2756 (5854)
RN1<$100	Noavg 57¢	$3.98	$3.98	-$0	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$2.95	$2.88	-$0.08	53% 2082-1842 (3924)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$1.62	$1.67	+$0.05	50% 12135-12341 (24476)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 36¢	$6.19	$1.59	+$0.04	58% 40796-29505 (70301)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,891.43

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$532.4

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

SnakeBall

Invested

$355.31

Value

$474.06

PnL

+$118.76

Record

50%

32798-32351 (65149)

fooooolARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$125.97

Value

$120.28

PnL

-$5.69

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

Both legs:

Yes$101.1866.5¢-$6.02

No$24.7937¢+$0.34

Cannae<$100

Invested

$78.76

Value

$77.65

PnL

-$1.11

Record

53%

15742-13912 (29654)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.74

Value

$33.81

PnL

+$1.07

Record

49%

18625-19055 (37680)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$22.12

Value

$26.25

PnL

+$4.13

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

RN1<$100

Invested

$3.98

Value

$3.98

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.95

Value

$2.88

PnL

-$0.08

Record

53%

2082-1842 (3924)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.62

Value

$1.67

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

12135-12341 (24476)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$6.19

Value

$1.59

PnL

+$0.04

Record

58%

40796-29505 (70301)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.