Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-28?

13 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (59%) · Yes at 65¢ · $428K held · ended Oct 28

Yes65¢No35¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 59%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$428.3K

Combined PnL

$4.9K

Smart Money Entry

50.7¢ → 65¢

+28% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 22 top traders (59%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes65%

No35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$184.6K

Total Shares371,215

Combined PnL+$3.0K

Yes13 traders

Total Value$198.5K

Total Shares390,027

Combined PnL+$1.9K

No — 41%Yes — 59%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

59% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 64% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Noavg 49.2¢	$168.0K	$170.8K	+$2.9K	48% 129-138 (267)
NB nb1985	Yesavg 50.8¢	$101.1K	$99.5K	-$646.06	52% 23-21 (44)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Yesavg 51¢	$58.2K	$57.1K	-$570.63	49% 558-581 (1139)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 50.3¢	$18.7K	$19.0K	+$334.97	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50.3¢	$9.7K	$13.6K	+$3.9K
└ No leg	Noavg 48.7¢	$9.0K	$5.5K	$-3.6K
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Yesavg 50¢	$15.0K	$15.0K	+$0	47% 2415-2698 (5113)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 49.1¢	$12.1K	$10.2K	$-1.9K	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 57.4¢	$4.6K	$5.6K	+$968.6
└ No leg	Noavg 49.1¢	$7.5K	$4.6K	$-2.8K
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 48.4¢	$7.0K	$9.9K	+$3.0K	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
HI hi774cARB<$100	Noavg 48.4¢	$8.3K	$8.4K	+$207.14	52% 4656-4366 (9022)
└ No leg	Noavg 48.4¢	$4.7K	$4.9K	+$207.14
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$0
CA CannaeARB<$100	Noavg 50¢	$7.4K	$7.5K	+$63.83	53% 15742-13912 (29654)
└ No leg	Noavg 50¢	$5.5K	$5.5K	-$0.15
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 48.4¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$63.98
ZH zhuz632	Yesavg 51¢	$6.9K	$6.7K	-$134.55	51% 241-231 (472)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 50¢	$5.6K	$5.6K	+$56.42	50% 12135-12341 (24476)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Noavg 48¢	$3.7K	$3.9K	+$192.55	50% 2463-2457 (4920)
KK kkpay19888	Yesavg 49.7¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	-$6.63	51% 522-510 (1032)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 50.4¢	$3.6K	$2.5K	-$92.31	58% 40796-29505 (70301)
0X 0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893	Yesavg 51¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$47	38% 416-676 (1092)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 49.4¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$25.53	50% 32798-32351 (65149)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Noavg 31¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$75.4	49% 18625-19055 (37680)
HRTrading	Yesavg 50.9¢	$827.57	$1.1K	+$284.9	53% 3098-2756 (5854)
MA Marios15tCTR	Noavg 53¢	$641.59	$605.27	-$36.32	48% 83-89 (172)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Yesavg 48¢	$360.4	$512.35	+$151.95	51% 1291-1227 (2518)
FF ff3364	Yesavg 51¢	$510	$500	-$10	50% 786-786 (1572)
LI LilybaeumARB<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$104.94	$114.13	+$9.18	62% 13617-8456 (22073)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 44¢	$79.2	$90	+$10.8
└ No leg	Noavg 53.4¢	$25.74	$24.13	-$1.62
FO foooool	Yesavg 66.4¢	$99.73	$104.39	+$4.66	50% 10545-10397 (20942)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 58¢	$7.76	$7.84	+$0.08	58% 28127-20735 (48862)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Noavg 58¢	$3.71	$3.2	-$0.51	53% 2082-1842 (3924)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Invested

$167,969.17

Value

$170.8K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

48%

129-138 (267)

nb1985

Yes

Invested

$101,135.87

Value

$99.5K

PnL

-$646.06

Record

52%

23-21 (44)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Yes

Invested

$58,215.89

Value

$57.1K

PnL

-$570.63

Record

49%

558-581 (1139)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$18,690.25

Value

$19.0K

PnL

+$334.97

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

Both legs:

Yes$9,666.7150.3¢+$3.9K

No$9,023.5548.7¢$-3.6K

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Yes

Invested

$15,000

Value

$15.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

2415-2698 (5113)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$12,077.83

Value

$10.2K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

Both legs:

Yes$4,614.0157.4¢+$968.6

No$7,463.8249.1¢$-2.8K

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$6,985.68

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

hi774cARB<$100

Invested

$8,276.26

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$207.14

Record

52%

4656-4366 (9022)

Both legs:

No$4,730.0648.4¢+$207.14

Yes$3,546.250¢+$0

CannaeARB<$100

Invested

$7,389.04

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$63.83

Record

53%

15742-13912 (29654)

Both legs:

No$5,464.150¢-$0.15

Yes$1,924.9448.4¢+$63.98

zhuz632

Yes

Invested

$6,862.05

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$134.55

Record

51%

241-231 (472)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$5,641.98

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$56.42

Record

50%

12135-12341 (24476)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Invested

$3,696.94

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$192.55

Record

50%

2463-2457 (4920)

kkpay19888

Yes

Invested

$3,182.35

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$6.63

Record

51%

522-510 (1032)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$3,640.19

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$92.31

Record

58%

40796-29505 (70301)

0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893

Yes

Invested

$2,397

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$47

Record

38%

416-676 (1092)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$2,181.08

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$25.53

Record

50%

32798-32351 (65149)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Invested

$1,529.91

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$75.4

Record

49%

18625-19055 (37680)

HRTrading

Yes

Invested

$827.57

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$284.9

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

Marios15tCTR

Invested

$641.59

Value

$605.27

PnL

-$36.32

Record

48%

83-89 (172)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Yes

Invested

$360.4

Value

$512.35

PnL

+$151.95

Record

51%

1291-1227 (2518)

ff3364

Yes

Invested

$510

Value

$500

PnL

-$10

Record

50%

786-786 (1572)

LilybaeumARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$104.94

Value

$114.13

PnL

+$9.18

Record

62%

13617-8456 (22073)

Both legs:

Invested

$99.73

Value

$104.39

PnL

+$4.66

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$7.76

Value

$7.84

PnL

+$0.08

Record

58%

28127-20735 (48862)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Invested

$3.71

Value

$3.2

PnL

-$0.51

Record

53%

2082-1842 (3924)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 22 top traders (59%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

59% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 64% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.1%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$48.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.