Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-10-28?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 68¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.1K
$7.61
68¢ → 67.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 68¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$6.88 | 58% 40750-29469 (70219) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 67.7¢ | $82.62 | $82.34 | +$0.94 | 58% 28120-20725 (48845) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $26.18 | $25.99 | -$0.19 | 59% 44604-31003 (75607) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $1.86 | $1.8 | -$0.03 | 53% 2082-1842 (3924) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $1.24 | $1.24 | +$0.02 | 53% 3046-2708 (5754) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,021.63
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$6.88
Record
58%
40750-29469 (70219)
Invested
$82.62
Value
$82.34
PnL
+$0.94
Record
58%
28120-20725 (48845)
Invested
$26.18
Value
$25.99
PnL
-$0.19
Record
59%
44604-31003 (75607)
Invested
$1.86
Value
$1.8
PnL
-$0.03
Record
53%
2082-1842 (3924)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.24
Value
$1.24
PnL
+$0.02
Record
53%
3046-2708 (5754)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.