Will Crewe Alexandra FC win on 2026-11-07?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 60¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
1 arb excluded
$6.2K
-$89.2
63.9¢ → 59.5¢
-7% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+4 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 64¢ | $3.8K | $3.5K | -$269.06 | 58% 47459-34244 (81703) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Yesavg 36¢ | $2.2K | $2.5K | +$181.68 | 50% 21530-21816 (43346) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $139 | $138.31 | +$0 | — 1-0 (1) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 50¢ | $69.5 | $82.01 | +$13.21 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 50¢ | $69.5 | $56.3 | -$13.21 | |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $50.09 | $50.09 | +$0 | 50% 28880-28690 (57570) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $18.33 | $16.64 | -$1.55 | 53% 2689-2368 (5057) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 62.2¢ | $12.96 | $12.29 | -$0.42 | 49% 1765-1864 (3629) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 41.2¢ | $8.24 | $8.1 | +$0.3 | 50% 1821-1809 (3630) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $6.1 | $5.9 | -$0.15 | 51% 38177-37419 (75596) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$3,840
Value
$3.5K
PnL
-$269.06
Record
58%
47459-34244 (81703)
Invested
$2,186.3
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$181.68
Record
50%
21530-21816 (43346)
Invested
$139
Value
$138.31
PnL
+$0
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Both legs:
Invested
$50.09
Value
$50.09
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
28880-28690 (57570)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$18.33
Value
$16.64
PnL
-$1.55
Record
53%
2689-2368 (5057)
Invested
$12.96
Value
$12.29
PnL
-$0.42
Record
49%
1765-1864 (3629)
Invested
$8.24
Value
$8.1
PnL
+$0.3
Record
50%
1821-1809 (3630)
Invested
$6.1
Value
$5.9
PnL
-$0.15
Record
51%
38177-37419 (75596)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.