Exact Score: CD Tecnico Universitario 1 - 0 Manta FC?

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (22%) · No at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 9

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 22%

Total Value

$8.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.8K

Smart Money Entry

88.9¢ → 100¢

+12% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares10,489

Combined PnL-$776

Yes7 traders

Total Value$224.73

Total Shares11,190

Combined PnL-$987.01

No — 22%Yes — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 100% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 89.2¢	$9.0K	$8.2K	-$778.14	54% 230-199 (429)
SE sentrio	Noavg 81¢	$346.72	$348.86	+$2.14	22% 46-161 (207)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 13.5¢	$237.09	$177.5	-$59.59	25% 84-258 (342)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$8.17	$31.2	+$23.03	39% 177-276 (453)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.8¢	$7.14	$7.85	+$0.71	46% 38-45 (83)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.5¢	$2.9	$3.7	+$0.8	48% 35-38 (73)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$463.69	$2.56	-$461.14	24% 87-279 (366)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 12.6¢	$344.2	$1.36	-$342.84	25% 84-248 (332)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 13.2¢	$148.55	$0.56	-$147.99	24% 81-263 (344)

RN1

Invested

$8,977.61

Value

$8.2K

PnL

-$778.14

Record

54%

230-199 (429)

sentrio

Invested

$346.72

Value

$348.86

PnL

+$2.14

Record

22%

46-161 (207)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$237.09

Value

$177.5

PnL

-$59.59

Record

25%

84-258 (342)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.17

Value

$31.2

PnL

+$23.03

Record

39%

177-276 (453)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.14

Value

$7.85

PnL

+$0.71

Record

46%

38-45 (83)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.9

Value

$3.7

PnL

+$0.8

Record

48%

35-38 (73)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$463.69

Value

$2.56

PnL

-$461.14

Record

24%

87-279 (366)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$344.2

Value

$1.36

PnL

-$342.84

Record

25%

84-248 (332)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$148.55

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$147.99

Record

24%

81-263 (344)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 100% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.