Ebola pandemic in 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $5K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$4.7K
$52.13
92.8¢ → 97.2¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Late
3918h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 tetrase | Noavg 93.1¢ | $3.2K | $3.2K | +$6.65 | 60% 798-534 (1332) |
 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | Noavg 88.7¢ | $710 | $776 | +$67.6 | 88% 2184-291 (2475) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 96.9¢ | $618.23 | $600.92 | +$1.9 | 77% 11063-3382 (14445) |
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 91¢ | $113.59 | $110.41 | +$7.04 | 73% 2903-1056 (3959) |
 cambridgeisaacCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.6¢ | $46 | $14.93 | -$31.07 | 57% 1101-821 (1922) |
tetraseInvested
$3,234.2
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$6.65
Record
60%
798-534 (1332)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04Invested
$710
Value
$776
PnL
+$67.6
Record
88%
2184-291 (2475)
Invested
$618.23
Value
$600.92
PnL
+$1.9
Record
77%
11063-3382 (14445)
Tenebrus7Invested
$113.59
Value
$110.41
PnL
+$7.04
Record
73%
2903-1056 (3959)
cambridgeisaacCTR<$100Invested
$46
Value
$14.93
PnL
-$31.07
Record
57%
1101-821 (1922)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.