Dota 2: Zenith vs Team Synapse (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Team Synapse (40%) · Team Synapse at 80¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Team Synapse
5
Team Synapse 40%
1 arb excluded
$2.2K
$116.15
64.5¢ → 79.5¢
+23% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralTeam Synapse at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100 | Team Synapseavg 61.5¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$103.65 | 22% 141-486 (627) |
| └ Team Synapse leg | Team Synapseavg 61.5¢ | $761.83 | $984.46 | +$223.44 | |
| └ Zenith leg | Zenithavg 39.3¢ | $683.42 | $356.32 | -$327.1 | |
XU xuxuntao | Team Synapseavg 61.7¢ | $500 | $644.67 | +$144.67 | 29% 16-40 (56) |
JU JuiceFarm | Team Synapseavg 84¢ | $101.06 | $86.02 | -$15.04 | — 4-1 (5) |
 alpheclabs2CTR<$100 | Zenithavg 28¢ | $71.4 | $72.68 | +$1.27 | 48% 66-71 (137) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100 | Zenithavg 37.5¢ | $62.3 | $48.09 | -$14.21 | 56% 3777-2944 (6721) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Zenithavg 31¢ | $6.82 | $6.27 | -$0.55 | 50% 128-129 (257) |
Invested
$1,448.94
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$103.65
Record
22%
141-486 (627)
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
$644.67
PnL
+$144.67
Record
29%
16-40 (56)
Invested
$101.06
Value
$86.02
PnL
-$15.04
Record
—
4-1 (5)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100Invested
$71.4
Value
$72.68
PnL
+$1.27
Record
48%
66-71 (137)
Invested
$62.3
Value
$48.09
PnL
-$14.21
Record
56%
3777-2944 (6721)
Invested
$6.82
Value
$6.27
PnL
-$0.55
Record
50%
128-129 (257)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.