Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs angry birds - Game 2 Winner

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold angry birds (50%) · angry birds at 94¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 12

Zero Tenacity6¢angry birds94¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

angry birds

Consensus Traders

angry birds 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.6K

Combined PnL

$984.45

Smart Money Entry

63.9¢ → 94¢

+47% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

Neutralangry birds at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

angry birds

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Zero Tenacity6%

angry birds94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

angry birds5 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares8,922

Combined PnL+$2.7K

Zero Tenacity5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares6,446

Combined PnL$-1.7K

angry birds — 50%Zero Tenacity — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	angry birdsavg 59.6¢	$2.9K	$4.6K	+$1.7K	46% 448-518 (966)
Tolkonevminus2	angry birdsavg 69.2¢	$2.7K	$3.6K	+$946.85	42% 47-65 (112)
NO NotJumpCTR	Zero Tenacityavg 50¢	$525	$525	+$0	54% 417-355 (772)
DO DotaBotRebornCTR	Zero Tenacityavg 37.3¢	$1.1K	$183.67	-$957.49	64% 35-20 (55)
LI LiquidifierCTR	Zero Tenacityavg 42.7¢	$180.73	$177.87	-$2.87	13% 13-88 (101)
poshposhARB<$100	angry birdsavg 59.2¢	$127.03	$140.97	+$13.94	47% 507-571 (1078)
└ angry birds leg	angry birdsavg 59.2¢	$66.96	$98.94	+$31.98
└ Zero Tenacity leg	Zero Tenacityavg 17.9¢	$60.07	$42.03	-$18.04
GT gt7238CTR	Zero Tenacityavg 39.5¢	$899.11	$136.5	-$762.61	4% 21-461 (482)
UN UNIVERSEMVP<$100	angry birdsavg 66¢	$68.49	$97.54	+$29.06	30% 36-84 (120)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 32¢	$51.52	$82.11	+$30.59	45% 186-224 (410)
LR lryyy<$100	angry birdsavg 77.1¢	$27.93	$31.34	+$3.41	44% 372-473 (845)
SU suntori<$100	angry birdsavg 62¢	$19.04	$18.12	-$0.92	47% 1493-1672 (3165)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

angry birds

Invested

$2,900

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

46%

448-518 (966)

Tolkonevminus2

angry birds

Invested

$2,699.67

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$946.85

Record

42%

47-65 (112)

NotJumpCTR

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$525

Value

$525

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

417-355 (772)

DotaBotRebornCTR

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$1,141.16

Value

$183.67

PnL

-$957.49

Record

64%

35-20 (55)

LiquidifierCTR

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$180.73

Value

$177.87

PnL

-$2.87

Record

13%

13-88 (101)

poshposhARB<$100

angry birds

Invested

$127.03

Value

$140.97

PnL

+$13.94

Record

47%

507-571 (1078)

Both legs:

angry birds$66.9659.2¢+$31.98

Zero Tenacity$60.0717.9¢-$18.04

gt7238CTR

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$899.11

Value

$136.5

PnL

-$762.61

Record

21-461 (482)

UNIVERSEMVP<$100

angry birds

Invested

$68.49

Value

$97.54

PnL

+$29.06

Record

30%

36-84 (120)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$51.52

Value

$82.11

PnL

+$30.59

Record

45%

186-224 (410)

lryyy<$100

angry birds

Invested

$27.93

Value

$31.34

PnL

+$3.41

Record

44%

372-473 (845)

suntori<$100

angry birds

Invested

$19.04

Value

$18.12

PnL

-$0.92

Record

47%

1493-1672 (3165)

Research grade

Neutralangry birds at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

angry birds

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that angry birds wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.