Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs angry birds (BO3) - Esports Pro Circuit Playoffs

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold angry birds (38%) · angry birds at 59¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

Zero Tenacity41¢angry birds59¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

angry birds

Consensus Traders

angry birds 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$86.86

Smart Money Entry

55.9¢ → 59¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

Neutralangry birds at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

angry birds

3 of 8 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Zero Tenacity41%

angry birds59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

angry birds3 traders

Total Value$882.13

Total Shares1,493

Combined PnL+$35.56

Zero Tenacity5 traders

Total Value$285.34

Total Shares525

Combined PnL+$51.3

angry birds — 38%Zero Tenacity — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on angry birds. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpangry birds 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrZero Tenacity 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Zero Tenacity 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU JuiceFarm	angry birdsavg 57.2¢	$643.74	$708.61	+$64.87	63% 22-13 (35)
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 49.5¢	$607.4	$526.3	+$38.27	37% 472-787 (1259)
└ angry birds leg	angry birdsavg 43.8¢	$195.7	$263.57	+$92.55
└ Zero Tenacity leg	Zero Tenacityavg 49.5¢	$317.01	$262.73	-$54.27
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 50¢	$525	$524.08	-$0.92	54% 417-355 (772)
└ angry birds leg	angry birdsavg 50¢	$262.5	$330.75	+$68.25
└ Zero Tenacity leg	Zero Tenacityavg 50¢	$262.5	$193.33	-$69.17
GA GaditimaCTR	Zero Tenacityavg 40¢	$128.25	$198.25	+$70	47% 158-181 (339)
poshposh<$100	angry birdsavg 40.2¢	$85.69	$95.42	+$9.73	47% 507-571 (1078)
HY hydra1248	angry birdsavg 63¢	$117.14	$78.09	-$39.05	78% 122-34 (156)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 55.4¢	$57.19	$42.36	-$14.83	47% 1493-1672 (3165)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 41¢	$36.09	$32.41	-$3.67	53% 6071-5438 (11509)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 43¢	$10.86	$9.3	-$1.56	50% 3533-3499 (7032)
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 50¢	$45.47	$3.01	+$1.36	48% 31-34 (65)

JuiceFarm

angry birds

Invested

$643.74

Value

$708.61

PnL

+$64.87

Record

63%

22-13 (35)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$607.4

Value

$526.3

PnL

+$38.27

Record

37%

472-787 (1259)

Both legs:

angry birds$195.743.8¢+$92.55

Zero Tenacity$317.0149.5¢-$54.27

NotJumpARB<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$525

Value

$524.08

PnL

-$0.92

Record

54%

417-355 (772)

Both legs:

angry birds$262.550¢+$68.25

Zero Tenacity$262.550¢-$69.17

GaditimaCTR

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$128.25

Value

$198.25

PnL

+$70

Record

47%

158-181 (339)

poshposh<$100

angry birds

Invested

$85.69

Value

$95.42

PnL

+$9.73

Record

47%

507-571 (1078)

hydra1248

angry birds

Invested

$117.14

Value

$78.09

PnL

-$39.05

Record

78%

122-34 (156)

suntoriCTR<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$57.19

Value

$42.36

PnL

-$14.83

Record

47%

1493-1672 (3165)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$36.09

Value

$32.41

PnL

-$3.67

Record

53%

6071-5438 (11509)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$10.86

Value

$9.3

PnL

-$1.56

Record

50%

3533-3499 (7032)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$45.47

Value

$3.01

PnL

+$1.36

Record

48%

31-34 (65)

Research grade

Neutralangry birds at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

angry birds

3 of 8 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on angry birds. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpangry birds 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrZero Tenacity 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Zero Tenacity 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that angry birds wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.