Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yellow Submarine, while the market favors LEGION (51%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs LEGION (BO3) - 1win Essence Play-in Group B
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yellow Submarine (75%) · Yellow Submarine at 50¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Yellow Submarine
4
Yellow Submarine 75%
1 arb excluded
$7.9K
-$242.18
49.1¢ → 49.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYellow Submarine at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors LEGION 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VI vibing123CTR | Yellow Submarineavg 49¢ | $5.9K | $5.7K | -$176.13 | 63% 1074-638 (1712) |
 Stickman22CTR | Yellow Submarineavg 49¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$33.55 | — 0-2 (2) |
JU JuiceFarmCTR | Yellow Submarineavg 50¢ | $700 | $665 | -$35 | — 4-1 (5) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | LEGIONavg 50.3¢ | $459.92 | $363.28 | +$10.83 | 48% 695-751 (1446) |
| └ LEGION leg | LEGIONavg 50.3¢ | $219.78 | $220.72 | +$3.77 | |
| └ Yellow Submarine leg | Yellow Submarineavg 47.3¢ | $136.13 | $142.56 | +$7.06 | |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | LEGIONavg 50¢ | $50 | $52.5 | +$2.5 | 48% 206-226 (432) |
Invested
$5,897.64
Value
$5.7K
PnL
-$176.13
Record
63%
1074-638 (1712)
Stickman22CTRInvested
$1,096.04
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$33.55
Record
—
0-2 (2)
Invested
$700
Value
$665
PnL
-$35
Record
—
4-1 (5)
Invested
$459.92
Value
$363.28
PnL
+$10.83
Record
48%
695-751 (1446)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$50
Value
$52.5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
48%
206-226 (432)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.