Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yakult Brothers, while the market favors Zero Tenacity (100%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group B

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yakult Brothers (88%) · Yakult Brothers at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8

Yakult Brothers<1¢Zero Tenacity>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yakult Brothers

Consensus Traders

Yakult Brothers 88%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$-5.6K

Smart Money Entry

41.1¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYakult Brothers at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yakult Brothers

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Zero Tenacity 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yakult Brothers0%

Zero Tenacity100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yakult Brothers7 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares20,952

Combined PnL$-5.6K

Zero Tenacity1 trader

Total Value$65.98

Total Shares68

Combined PnL+$6.92

Yakult Brothers — 88%Zero Tenacity — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO lonmi2511CTR	Yakult Brothersavg 49.6¢	$7.5K	$2.7K	$-1.1K	52% 1527-1394 (2921)
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	Yakult Brothersavg 45.6¢	$616.81	$289.29	-$8.39	52% 9470-8570 (18040)
└ Zero Tenacity leg	Zero Tenacityavg 52.3¢	$127.93	$159.06	+$31.12
└ Yakult Brothers leg	Yakult Brothersavg 45.6¢	$169.72	$130.24	-$39.51
CI cigarettesCTR	Yakult Brothersavg 40.6¢	$405.64	$144	-$20.7	50% 65438-65762 (131200)
LR lryyyCTR	Yakult Brothersavg 40.1¢	$138.71	$121.1	-$17.61	48% 39763-42635 (82398)
CA calculate10<$100	Zero Tenacityavg 87.1¢	$59.06	$65.98	+$6.92	54% 1374-1184 (2558)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Yakult Brothersavg 31¢	$31	$35	+$4	47% 8606-9734 (18340)
alpheclabs2CTR	Yakult Brothersavg 37.4¢	$4.3K	$5.79	$-4.3K	47% 1601-1796 (3397)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Yakult Brothersavg 24.6¢	$206.94	$0.42	-$206.52	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
dips.CTR<$100	Yakult Brothersavg 0.9¢	$1.54	$0.09	-$1.45	46% 12026-13917 (25943)

lonmi2511CTR

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$7,507.25

Value

$2.7K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

52%

1527-1394 (2921)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$616.81

Value

$289.29

PnL

-$8.39

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

Both legs:

Zero Tenacity$127.9352.3¢+$31.12

Yakult Brothers$169.7245.6¢-$39.51

cigarettesCTR

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$405.64

Value

$144

PnL

-$20.7

Record

50%

65438-65762 (131200)

lryyyCTR

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$138.71

Value

$121.1

PnL

-$17.61

Record

48%

39763-42635 (82398)

calculate10<$100

Zero Tenacity

Invested

$59.06

Value

$65.98

PnL

+$6.92

Record

54%

1374-1184 (2558)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$31

Value

$35

PnL

+$4

Record

47%

8606-9734 (18340)

alpheclabs2CTR

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$4,335.54

Value

$5.79

PnL

$-4.3K

Record

47%

1601-1796 (3397)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$206.94

Value

$0.42

PnL

-$206.52

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

dips.CTR<$100

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$1.54

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$1.45

Record

46%

12026-13917 (25943)

Research grade

AvoidYakult Brothers at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yakult Brothers

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Zero Tenacity 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yakult Brothers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.