Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs PuckChamp - Game 2 Winner

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold PuckChamp (53%) · PuckChamp at 96¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 9

Yakult Brothers5¢PuckChamp95¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

PuckChamp

Consensus Traders

PuckChamp 53%

Total Value

$19.9K

Combined PnL

-$894.28

Smart Money Entry

77.2¢ → 95.5¢

+24% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralPuckChamp at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PuckChamp

8 of 15 top traders (53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yakult Brothers5%

PuckChamp96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PuckChamp8 traders

Total Value$18.8K

Total Shares22,345

Combined PnL+$686.6

Yakult Brothers7 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares12,058

Combined PnL$-1.6K

PuckChamp — 53%Yakult Brothers — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO ColdBlooded	PuckChampavg 79.9¢	$12.0K	$11.9K	-$57.03	72% 169-65 (234)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	PuckChampavg 72.9¢	$2.4K	$3.1K	+$654.22	58% 1007-718 (1725)
RA RandomVibecoder	PuckChampavg 64.8¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$81.88	48% 876-944 (1820)
XU xuxuntao	PuckChampavg 72.5¢	$881.31	$930.53	+$49.22	60% 127-84 (211)
alpheclabs2CTR	Yakult Brothersavg 38¢	$380	$380	+$0	47% 1624-1831 (3455)
SkritopoolniyCTR	Yakult Brothersavg 21¢	$1.4K	$346.77	$-1.1K	46% 673-784 (1457)
R2 r2d2v2	PuckChampavg 78.6¢	$277.27	$324.36	+$47.08	54% 314-264 (578)
CA calculate10	PuckChampavg 82.6¢	$483.27	$315.48	+$13.74	54% 1381-1194 (2575)
PA pauleta23	PuckChampavg 82.3¢	$210	$241.88	+$31.88	65% 25411-13605 (39016)
Medo3DCTR	Yakult Brothersavg 20¢	$482.4	$182.14	-$300.26	40% 182-275 (457)
PO PourpelNourpelCTR	Yakult Brothersavg 18¢	$259	$119.43	-$139.57	52% 688-645 (1333)
OM omnibus-076daa	PuckChampavg 57¢	$76.09	$105.46	+$29.37	50% 23449-23463 (46912)
BA BackTestEoCaraioCTR	Yakult Brothersavg 16.9¢	$899.8	$26.19	-$37.06	61% 656-413 (1069)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yakult Brothersavg 42.5¢	$53.89	$18.48	-$35.41	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yakult Brothersavg 54¢	$8.88	$9.5	+$0.63	59% 52363-37089 (89452)

ColdBlooded

PuckChamp

Invested

$11,975.76

Value

$11.9K

PnL

-$57.03

Record

72%

169-65 (234)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

PuckChamp

Invested

$2,439.27

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$654.22

Record

58%

1007-718 (1725)

RandomVibecoder

PuckChamp

Invested

$1,954.73

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$81.88

Record

48%

876-944 (1820)

xuxuntao

PuckChamp

Invested

$881.31

Value

$930.53

PnL

+$49.22

Record

60%

127-84 (211)

alpheclabs2CTR

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$380

Value

$380

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

1624-1831 (3455)

SkritopoolniyCTR

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$1,415.97

Value

$346.77

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

46%

673-784 (1457)

r2d2v2

PuckChamp

Invested

$277.27

Value

$324.36

PnL

+$47.08

Record

54%

314-264 (578)

calculate10

PuckChamp

Invested

$483.27

Value

$315.48

PnL

+$13.74

Record

54%

1381-1194 (2575)

pauleta23

PuckChamp

Invested

$210

Value

$241.88

PnL

+$31.88

Record

65%

25411-13605 (39016)

Medo3DCTR

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$482.4

Value

$182.14

PnL

-$300.26

Record

40%

182-275 (457)

PourpelNourpelCTR

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$259

Value

$119.43

PnL

-$139.57

Record

52%

688-645 (1333)

omnibus-076daa

PuckChamp

Invested

$76.09

Value

$105.46

PnL

+$29.37

Record

50%

23449-23463 (46912)

BackTestEoCaraioCTR

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$899.8

Value

$26.19

PnL

-$37.06

Record

61%

656-413 (1069)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$53.89

Value

$18.48

PnL

-$35.41

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$8.88

Value

$9.5

PnL

+$0.63

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

Research grade

NeutralPuckChamp at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

PuckChamp

8 of 15 top traders (53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PuckChamp wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.