Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner

6 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Inner Circle (38%) · Inner Circle at 58¢ · $50K held · ends Nov 10

Yakult Brothers42¢Inner Circle58¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Inner Circle

Consensus Traders

Inner Circle 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$50.1K

Combined PnL

$-4.3K

Smart Money Entry

65.1¢ → 58¢

-11% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralInner Circle at 58%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Inner Circle

6 of 16 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yakult Brothers42%

Inner Circle58%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Inner Circle6 traders

Total Value$40.0K

Total Shares69,562

Combined PnL$-5.3K

Yakult Brothers10 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares23,996

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Inner Circle — 38%Yakult Brothers — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Inner Circle. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperInner Circle 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYakult Brothers 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yakult Brothers 62% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Inner Circleavg 66.2¢	$25.7K	$22.1K	$-3.6K	6% 16-269 (285)
CO ColdBlooded	Inner Circleavg 65.7¢	$15.7K	$13.8K	$-1.8K	— 2-0 (2)
SI Sisyphus-CTR	Yakult Brothersavg 40.1¢	$5.3K	$5.5K	+$256.52	3% 8-236 (244)
RA RandomVibecoder	Inner Circleavg 56.2¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$106.17	3% 6-200 (206)
WH whosayCTR	Yakult Brothersavg 36.8¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$227.06	— 2-0 (2)
XJ xjansfsaCTR	Yakult Brothersavg 28.7¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$390.26	— 0-10 (10)
CA calculate10	Inner Circleavg 58.2¢	$836.96	$554.55	+$6.07	18% 9-42 (51)
PO PourpelNourpelCTR	Yakult Brothersavg 41¢	$308	$303.91	-$4.09	48% 11-12 (23)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR	Yakult Brothersavg 28¢	$191.75	$271.9	+$73.93	4% 6-133 (139)
BA BackTestEoCaraioCTR	Yakult Brothersavg 34.8¢	$504.2	$166.33	+$79.94	11% 5-39 (44)
PL plustiCTR	Yakult Brothersavg 35¢	$164.48	$157.43	-$7.05	14% 3-18 (21)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Yakult Brothersavg 37.7¢	$133.79	$146.22	+$12.43	49% 374-391 (765)
└ Yakult Brothers leg	Yakult Brothersavg 37.7¢	$80.26	$86.08	+$5.82
└ Inner Circle leg	Inner Circleavg 53¢	$53.53	$60.14	+$6.61
LR lryyyARB<$100	Yakult Brothersavg 33.1¢	$73.32	$82.28	+$8.96	60% 37-25 (62)
└ Yakult Brothers leg	Yakult Brothersavg 33.1¢	$44.49	$47.73	+$3.24
└ Inner Circle leg	Inner Circleavg 53.8¢	$28.83	$34.56	+$5.72
JE jelly2026<$100	Inner Circleavg 56.2¢	$69.68	$75.01	+$5.33	— 0-1 (1)
maytopmayCTR<$100	Yakult Brothersavg 43.3¢	$50.03	$48.53	-$1.5	5% 8-139 (147)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yakult Brothersavg 29.2¢	$55.16	$21.79	+$5.7	23% 45-152 (197)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yakult Brothersavg 37¢	$10.81	$11.82	+$1.01	31% 60-136 (196)
NO nomoredream<$100	Inner Circleavg 61.7¢	$9.67	$5.13	+$0.32	15% 8-47 (55)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Inner Circle

Invested

$25,701.29

Value

$22.1K

PnL

$-3.6K

Record

16-269 (285)

ColdBlooded

Inner Circle

Invested

$15,678.49

Value

$13.8K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

—

2-0 (2)

Sisyphus-CTR

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$5,281.52

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$256.52

Record

8-236 (244)

RandomVibecoder

Inner Circle

Invested

$3,295.81

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$106.17

Record

6-200 (206)

whosayCTR

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$1,609.7

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$227.06

Record

—

2-0 (2)

xjansfsaCTR

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$1,138.18

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$390.26

Record

—

0-10 (10)

calculate10

Inner Circle

Invested

$836.96

Value

$554.55

PnL

+$6.07

Record

18%

9-42 (51)

PourpelNourpelCTR

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$308

Value

$303.91

PnL

-$4.09

Record

48%

11-12 (23)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$191.75

Value

$271.9

PnL

+$73.93

Record

6-133 (139)

BackTestEoCaraioCTR

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$504.2

Value

$166.33

PnL

+$79.94

Record

11%

5-39 (44)

plustiCTR

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$164.48

Value

$157.43

PnL

-$7.05

Record

14%

3-18 (21)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$133.79

Value

$146.22

PnL

+$12.43

Record

49%

374-391 (765)

Both legs:

Yakult Brothers$80.2637.7¢+$5.82

Inner Circle$53.5353¢+$6.61

lryyyARB<$100

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$73.32

Value

$82.28

PnL

+$8.96

Record

60%

37-25 (62)

Both legs:

Yakult Brothers$44.4933.1¢+$3.24

Inner Circle$28.8353.8¢+$5.72

jelly2026<$100

Inner Circle

Invested

$69.68

Value

$75.01

PnL

+$5.33

Record

—

0-1 (1)

maytopmayCTR<$100

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$50.03

Value

$48.53

PnL

-$1.5

Record

8-139 (147)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$55.16

Value

$21.79

PnL

+$5.7

Record

23%

45-152 (197)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$10.81

Value

$11.82

PnL

+$1.01

Record

31%

60-136 (196)

nomoredream<$100

Inner Circle

Invested

$9.67

Value

$5.13

PnL

+$0.32

Record

15%

8-47 (55)

Research grade

NeutralInner Circle at 58%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Inner Circle

6 of 16 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Inner Circle. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperInner Circle 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYakult Brothers 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yakult Brothers 62% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Inner Circle wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.2%

58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$66.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

166.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.