Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Inner Circle, while the market favors Yakult Brothers (69%). 3 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Inner Circle (25%) · Inner Circle at 31¢ · $36K held · ends Nov 10

Yakult Brothers69¢Inner Circle31¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Inner Circle

Consensus Traders

Inner Circle 25%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$35.8K

Combined PnL

$-5.9K

Smart Money Entry

74.6¢ → 31¢

-58% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralInner Circle at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Inner Circle

3 of 12 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Yakult Brothers 69%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yakult Brothers69%

Inner Circle31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Inner Circle3 traders

Total Value$19.8K

Total Shares43,656

Combined PnL$-12.8K

Yakult Brothers9 traders

Total Value$13.6K

Total Shares22,824

Combined PnL+$6.9K

Inner Circle — 25%Yakult Brothers — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Inner Circle. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yakult Brothers 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	Inner Circleavg 73.2¢	$24.4K	$11.0K	$-13.4K	—
CO ColdBloodedCTR	Inner Circleavg 79.2¢	$8.1K	$8.7K	+$588.7	—
SI Sisyphus-	Yakult Brothersavg 20.2¢	$1.7K	$5.8K	+$4.1K	—
RA RandomVibecoder	Yakult Brothersavg 37.9¢	$3.3K	$5.6K	+$2.3K	—
Skritopoolniy	Yakult Brothersavg 20.7¢	$852.66	$1.5K	+$654.45	—
CA calculate10ARB<$100	Inner Circleavg 38.5¢	$2.3K	$1.5K	+$337.31	—
└ Yakult Brothers leg	Yakult Brothersavg 41.2¢	$566.1	$996.26	+$621.18
└ Inner Circle leg	Inner Circleavg 38.5¢	$683.01	$488.49	-$283.87
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Yakult Brothersavg 64.1¢	$330.46	$329.46	+$10.63	—
└ Yakult Brothers leg	Yakult Brothersavg 64.1¢	$226.1	$255.76	+$31.04
└ Inner Circle leg	Inner Circleavg 35.1¢	$94.11	$73.7	-$20.41
alpheclabs2ARB<$100	Inner Circleavg 13.4¢	$133.84	$313.5	+$179.66	—
└ Inner Circle leg	Inner Circleavg 13.4¢	$103.44	$193.5	+$90.06
└ Yakult Brothers leg	Yakult Brothersavg 19¢	$30.4	$120	+$89.6
BA BackTestEoCaraioARB<$100	Inner Circleavg 41.3¢	$3.4K	$277.45	+$350.59	—
└ Inner Circle leg	Inner Circleavg 41.3¢	$215.47	$159.2	+$33.16
└ Yakult Brothers leg	Yakult Brothersavg 46.7¢	$79.51	$118.24	+$317.43
PA pauleta23	Yakult Brothersavg 74¢	$288.94	$226.38	-$62.56	—
PO PourpelNourpel	Yakult Brothersavg 21¢	$304.75	$217.68	-$87.07	—
LR lryyy	Yakult Brothersavg 65.5¢	$186.65	$193.64	+$6.99	—
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR	Inner Circleavg 75¢	$110.91	$125.7	+$14.79	—
maytopmay<$100	Yakult Brothersavg 21.6¢	$89.01	$61.95	-$27.06	—
XJ xjansfsa<$100	Yakult Brothersavg 73¢	$48.18	$47.85	-$0.33	—
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7<$100	Yakult Brothersavg 25¢	$10	$13.2	+$3.2	—

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

Inner Circle

Invested

$24,368.06

Value

$11.0K

PnL

$-13.4K

Record

—

ColdBloodedCTR

Inner Circle

Invested

$8,089.76

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$588.7

Record

—

Sisyphus-

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$1,652.58

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$4.1K

Record

—

RandomVibecoder

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$3,292.03

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

—

Skritopoolniy

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$852.66

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$654.45

Record

—

calculate10ARB<$100

Inner Circle

Invested

$2,291.09

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$337.31

Record

—

Both legs:

Yakult Brothers$566.141.2¢+$621.18

Inner Circle$683.0138.5¢-$283.87

38791873984189ARB<$100

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$330.46

Value

$329.46

PnL

+$10.63

Record

—

Both legs:

Yakult Brothers$226.164.1¢+$31.04

Inner Circle$94.1135.1¢-$20.41

alpheclabs2ARB<$100

Inner Circle

Invested

$133.84

Value

$313.5

PnL

+$179.66

Record

—

Both legs:

Inner Circle$103.4413.4¢+$90.06

Yakult Brothers$30.419¢+$89.6

BackTestEoCaraioARB<$100

Inner Circle

Invested

$3,374.41

Value

$277.45

PnL

+$350.59

Record

—

Both legs:

Inner Circle$215.4741.3¢+$33.16

Yakult Brothers$79.5146.7¢+$317.43

pauleta23

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$288.94

Value

$226.38

PnL

-$62.56

Record

—

PourpelNourpel

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$304.75

Value

$217.68

PnL

-$87.07

Record

—

lryyy

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$186.65

Value

$193.64

PnL

+$6.99

Record

—

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR

Inner Circle

Invested

$110.91

Value

$125.7

PnL

+$14.79

Record

—

maytopmay<$100

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$89.01

Value

$61.95

PnL

-$27.06

Record

—

xjansfsa<$100

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$48.18

Value

$47.85

PnL

-$0.33

Record

—

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7<$100

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$10

Value

$13.2

PnL

+$3.2

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralInner Circle at 31%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Inner Circle

3 of 12 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Yakult Brothers 69%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Inner Circle. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yakult Brothers 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Inner Circle wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.1%

31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$202.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

302.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.