Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group B

1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold InterActive Philippines (17%) · InterActive Philippines at 71¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 10

Yakult Brothers29¢InterActive Philippines71¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

InterActive Philippines

Consensus Traders

InterActive Philippines 17%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.3K

Combined PnL

$646.53

Research grade

NeutralInterActive Philippines at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

InterActive Philippines

1 of 6 top traders (17%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yakult Brothers29%

InterActive Philippines71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

InterActive Philippines1 trader

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares9,294

Combined PnL+$643.25

Yakult Brothers5 traders

Total Value$199.75

Total Shares642

Combined PnL+$3.29

InterActive Philippines — 17%Yakult Brothers — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on InterActive Philippines. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYakult Brothers 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yakult Brothers 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	InterActive Philippinesavg 64.1¢	$6.0K	$6.6K	+$643.25	45% 404-486 (890)
CA calculate10ARB<$100	Yakult Brothersavg 39¢	$402.05	$304.97	-$69.07	19% 17-72 (89)
└ Yakult Brothers leg	Yakult Brothersavg 39¢	$277.78	$203.17	-$78.89
└ InterActive Philippines leg	InterActive Philippinesavg 65.3¢	$93.04	$101.81	+$9.81
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	Yakult Brothersavg 28.5¢	$293.99	$241.21	+$7.28	23% 147-489 (636)
└ Yakult Brothers leg	Yakult Brothersavg 28.5¢	$119.99	$122.06	+$2.07
└ InterActive Philippines leg	InterActive Philippinesavg 68.9¢	$115.68	$119.15	+$5.21
alpheclabs2CTR	Yakult Brothersavg 29.5¢	$147.37	$152.55	+$5.18	48% 67-74 (141)
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100	Yakult Brothersavg 43.3¢	$28.23	$24.78	-$3.45	49% 29-30 (59)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yakult Brothersavg 26¢	$13	$14.25	+$1.25	52% 5320-4824 (10144)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Yakult Brothersavg 26¢	$5.72	$6.27	+$0.55	50% 132-132 (264)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yakult Brothersavg 43¢	$2.15	$1.9	-$0.25	35% 171-317 (488)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

InterActive Philippines

Invested

$5,955.61

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$643.25

Record

45%

404-486 (890)

calculate10ARB<$100

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$402.05

Value

$304.97

PnL

-$69.07

Record

19%

17-72 (89)

Both legs:

Yakult Brothers$277.7839¢-$78.89

InterActive Philippines$93.0465.3¢+$9.81

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$293.99

Value

$241.21

PnL

+$7.28

Record

23%

147-489 (636)

Both legs:

Yakult Brothers$119.9928.5¢+$2.07

InterActive Philippines$115.6868.9¢+$5.21

alpheclabs2CTR

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$147.37

Value

$152.55

PnL

+$5.18

Record

48%

67-74 (141)

glennyorkshireCTR<$100

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$28.23

Value

$24.78

PnL

-$3.45

Record

49%

29-30 (59)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$13

Value

$14.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

52%

5320-4824 (10144)

lryyyCTR<$100

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$5.72

Value

$6.27

PnL

+$0.55

Record

50%

132-132 (264)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yakult Brothers

Invested

$2.15

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$0.25

Record

35%

171-317 (488)

Research grade

NeutralInterActive Philippines at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

InterActive Philippines

1 of 6 top traders (17%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on InterActive Philippines. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYakult Brothers 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yakult Brothers 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that InterActive Philippines wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.