Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Xipto Esports, while the market favors Yellow Submarine (52%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - 1win Essence Play-in Group B

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Xipto Esports (29%) · Xipto Esports at 49¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 10

Xipto Esports49¢Yellow Submarine51¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Xipto Esports

Consensus Traders

Xipto Esports 29%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.5K

Combined PnL

$125.44

Smart Money Entry

48¢ → 48.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralXipto Esports at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Yellow Submarine 52%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Xipto Esports49%

Yellow Submarine52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Xipto Esports2 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares11,378

Combined PnL-$7.2

Yellow Submarine5 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares5,884

Combined PnL+$132.65

Xipto Esports — 29%Yellow Submarine — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	Xipto Esportsavg 48.1¢	$5.4K	$5.4K	-$8.75	—
forsenxd	Yellow Submarineavg 54.6¢	$5.6K	$3.2K	+$133.66	—
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 48.1¢	$650.6	$661.84	+$11.24	—
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 48.1¢	$352.55	$352.01	-$0.54
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 50¢	$298.05	$309.83	+$11.78
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 49.6¢	$528.99	$531.93	+$2.94	—
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 49.6¢	$276.03	$267.36	-$8.68
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 49.7¢	$252.96	$264.58	+$11.62
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 49.3¢	$409	$385.78	+$2.78	—
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 49.3¢	$313.5	$308.53	-$4.97
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 47.8¢	$71.63	$77.25	+$7.75
II iii252ARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 48.2¢	$144.5	$149.24	+$4.75	—
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 48.2¢	$80.55	$91.17	+$10.62
└ Yellow Submarine leg	Yellow Submarineavg 50.1¢	$63.94	$58.07	-$5.87
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 60.3¢	$97.23	$91.94	-$5.29	—
AA aaaa298<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 47.2¢	$45.65	$49.85	+$4.21	—
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 49.5¢	$34.85	$34.95	+$0.1	—
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 38¢	$25	$26.55	+$1.54	—
PA Pan9X<$100	Yellow Submarineavg 58¢	$5	$2.88	-$0.03	—

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$5,440.77

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$8.75

Record

—

forsenxd

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$5,581.34

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$133.66

Record

—

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$650.6

Value

$661.84

PnL

+$11.24

Record

—

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$352.5548.1¢-$0.54

Yellow Submarine$298.0550¢+$11.78

TommyLeePeecaARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$528.99

Value

$531.93

PnL

+$2.94

Record

—

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$276.0349.6¢-$8.68

Yellow Submarine$252.9649.7¢+$11.62

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$409

Value

$385.78

PnL

+$2.78

Record

—

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$313.549.3¢-$4.97

Yellow Submarine$71.6347.8¢+$7.75

iii252ARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$144.5

Value

$149.24

PnL

+$4.75

Record

—

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$80.5548.2¢+$10.62

Yellow Submarine$63.9450.1¢-$5.87

glennyorkshire<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$97.23

Value

$91.94

PnL

-$5.29

Record

—

aaaa298<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$45.65

Value

$49.85

PnL

+$4.21

Record

—

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

$34.85

Value

$34.95

PnL

+$0.1

Record

—

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$25

Value

$26.55

PnL

+$1.54

Record

—

Pan9X<$100

Yellow Submarine

Invested

Value

$2.88

PnL

-$0.03

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralXipto Esports at 49%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Yellow Submarine 52%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Xipto Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.