Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs Team Synapse (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Xipto Esports (38%) · Xipto Esports at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 9

Xipto Esports99¢Team Synapse1¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Xipto Esports

Consensus Traders

Xipto Esports 38%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$149.97

Smart Money Entry

76.4¢ → 98.8¢

+29% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralXipto Esports at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Xipto Esports99%

Team Synapse1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Xipto Esports5 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares3,235

Combined PnL+$297.73

Team Synapse8 traders

Total Value$135.05

Total Shares1,026

Combined PnL-$147.76

Xipto Esports — 38%Team Synapse — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Xipto Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTeam Synapse 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Team Synapse 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AM ameisgoat11	Xipto Esportsavg 79.9¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$55.99	53% 14840-13046 (27886)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Xipto Esportsavg 68.8¢	$711.27	$1.0K	+$305.92	59% 1040-730 (1770)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Xipto Esportsavg 79.9¢	$486.19	$406.19	-$80	53% 15728-13882 (29610)
38 38791873984189	Xipto Esportsavg 81¢	$90.86	$105.91	+$15.05	48% 72230-77977 (150207)
GT gt7238CTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 39¢	$56.02	$52.29	-$3.73	45% 702-875 (1577)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 38.1¢	$49.82	$27.45	-$22.37	50% 24138-24257 (48395)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 37¢	$36.52	$23.24	-$13.28	47% 8799-9988 (18787)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 38¢	$14.39	$16.34	+$1.95	65% 2216-1213 (3429)
LI liriksCTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 14¢	$6.51	$9.77	+$3.26	67% 24-12 (36)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 63.5¢	$3.18	$3.95	+$0.78	52% 6204-5726 (11930)
GL glennyorkshireCTR	Team Synapseavg 41.1¢	$61.87	$3.54	-$58.34	47% 255-290 (545)
CA calculate10CTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 27.4¢	$93.14	$2.39	-$55	54% 1397-1200 (2597)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 12¢	$0.27	$0.03	-$0.24	51% 28849-28206 (57055)

ameisgoat11

Xipto Esports

Invested

$1,625.65

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$55.99

Record

53%

14840-13046 (27886)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Xipto Esports

Invested

$711.27

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$305.92

Record

59%

1040-730 (1770)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Xipto Esports

Invested

$486.19

Value

$406.19

PnL

-$80

Record

53%

15728-13882 (29610)

38791873984189

Xipto Esports

Invested

$90.86

Value

$105.91

PnL

+$15.05

Record

48%

72230-77977 (150207)

gt7238CTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$56.02

Value

$52.29

PnL

-$3.73

Record

45%

702-875 (1577)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$49.82

Value

$27.45

PnL

-$22.37

Record

50%

24138-24257 (48395)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$36.52

Value

$23.24

PnL

-$13.28

Record

47%

8799-9988 (18787)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$14.39

Value

$16.34

PnL

+$1.95

Record

65%

2216-1213 (3429)

liriksCTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$6.51

Value

$9.77

PnL

+$3.26

Record

67%

24-12 (36)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$3.18

Value

$3.95

PnL

+$0.78

Record

52%

6204-5726 (11930)

glennyorkshireCTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$61.87

Value

$3.54

PnL

-$58.34

Record

47%

255-290 (545)

calculate10CTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$93.14

Value

$2.39

PnL

-$55

Record

54%

1397-1200 (2597)

sentrioCTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.24

Record

51%

28849-28206 (57055)

Research grade

NeutralXipto Esports at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Xipto Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTeam Synapse 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Team Synapse 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Xipto Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.