Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Xipto Esports, while the market favors Power Rangers (68%). 5 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Xipto Esports (36%) · Xipto Esports at 32¢ · $34K held · ends Nov 7

Xipto Esports32¢Power Rangers68¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Xipto Esports

Consensus Traders

Xipto Esports 36%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$33.5K

Combined PnL

$-4.4K

Smart Money Entry

45.1¢ → 32¢

-29% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralXipto Esports at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

5 of 14 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Power Rangers 68%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Xipto Esports32%

Power Rangers68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Xipto Esports5 traders

Total Value$12.3K

Total Shares39,639

Combined PnL$-5.7K

Power Rangers9 traders

Total Value$15.7K

Total Shares22,877

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Xipto Esports — 36%Power Rangers — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR	Xipto Esportsavg 45.3¢	$16.7K	$11.1K	$-5.7K	58% 955-684 (1639)
CA calculate10	Power Rangersavg 69.5¢	$8.9K	$5.3K	+$15.13	54% 1327-1145 (2472)
Tolkonevminus2	Power Rangersavg 65¢	$3.3K	$3.9K	+$592.21	63% 107-62 (169)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Power Rangersavg 54¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$36.61	52% 14647-13309 (27956)
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 44.9¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$161.13
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 54¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$124.52
UN UNIVERSEMVP	Power Rangersavg 65.7¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$7.12	68% 117-55 (172)
PA panpidaras1ARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 31.5¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$24.78	48% 289-319 (608)
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 31.5¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$51.42
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 66.7¢	$631.7	$658.34	+$26.64
Sunshine.Smile	Power Rangersavg 57.3¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$208.17	58% 1973-1446 (3419)
NO nomoredream	Power Rangersavg 67.2¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$57.2	61% 344-220 (564)
0X 0xbFAB152aFA43741b41BE0f355F862be2630cf067-1779364275266	Power Rangersavg 57.7¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$4.41	68% 622-298 (920)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR	Xipto Esportsavg 43.2¢	$724.45	$812.83	+$88.38	50% 564-572 (1136)
R2 r2d2v2	Power Rangersavg 55¢	$650	$632.27	-$17.73	54% 303-255 (558)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Power Rangersavg 63¢	$290.13	$293.34	+$3.21	48% 62379-67237 (129616)
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 63¢	$197.03	$217.4	+$20.36
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 37.4¢	$93.1	$75.95	-$17.16
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Xipto Esportsavg 43.7¢	$205.75	$188.47	-$17.28	54% 3506-3037 (6543)
MA madar78	Power Rangersavg 50.9¢	$1.5K	$157.74	+$446.62	67% 70-35 (105)
alpheclabs2CTR	Xipto Esportsavg 41.6¢	$120.15	$145.95	+$25.81	47% 1356-1533 (2889)
FE ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 33.1¢	$106.8	$106.62	-$0.18	42% 8163-11357 (19520)
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 33.1¢	$73.31	$67.65	-$5.66
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 59.7¢	$33.49	$38.97	+$5.48
BA BackTestEoCaraioCTR	Xipto Esportsavg 36.8¢	$1.9K	$80.37	-$153.21	62% 622-382 (1004)
LR lryyyARB<$100	Power Rangersavg 67.1¢	$69.39	$64.85	-$4.55	47% 9540-10662 (20202)
└ Power Rangers leg	Power Rangersavg 67.1¢	$40.24	$42.9	+$2.66
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 37.9¢	$29.15	$21.94	-$7.21
PA pauleta23<$100	Power Rangersavg 59.2¢	$10.21	$9.57	-$0.64	66% 24435-12490 (36925)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592CTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$16,733.65

Value

$11.1K

PnL

$-5.7K

Record

58%

955-684 (1639)

calculate10

Power Rangers

Invested

$8,858.44

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$15.13

Record

54%

1327-1145 (2472)

Tolkonevminus2

Power Rangers

Invested

$3,343.13

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$592.21

Record

63%

107-62 (169)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$2,791.56

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$36.61

Record

52%

14647-13309 (27956)

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$1,296.2244.9¢+$161.13

Power Rangers$1,495.3454¢-$124.52

UNIVERSEMVP

Power Rangers

Invested

$2,256.97

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$7.12

Record

68%

117-55 (172)

panpidaras1ARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$2,204.95

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$24.78

Record

48%

289-319 (608)

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$1,573.2531.5¢-$51.42

Power Rangers$631.766.7¢+$26.64

Sunshine.Smile

Power Rangers

Invested

$1,108.68

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$208.17

Record

58%

1973-1446 (3419)

nomoredream

Power Rangers

Invested

$1,002.48

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$57.2

Record

61%

344-220 (564)

0xbFAB152aFA43741b41BE0f355F862be2630cf067-1779364275266

Power Rangers

Invested

$1,021.74

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$4.41

Record

68%

622-298 (920)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341CTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$724.45

Value

$812.83

PnL

+$88.38

Record

50%

564-572 (1136)

r2d2v2

Power Rangers

Invested

$650

Value

$632.27

PnL

-$17.73

Record

54%

303-255 (558)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$290.13

Value

$293.34

PnL

+$3.21

Record

48%

62379-67237 (129616)

Both legs:

Power Rangers$197.0363¢+$20.36

Xipto Esports$93.137.4¢-$17.16

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$205.75

Value

$188.47

PnL

-$17.28

Record

54%

3506-3037 (6543)

madar78

Power Rangers

Invested

$1,475.23

Value

$157.74

PnL

+$446.62

Record

67%

70-35 (105)

alpheclabs2CTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$120.15

Value

$145.95

PnL

+$25.81

Record

47%

1356-1533 (2889)

ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$106.8

Value

$106.62

PnL

-$0.18

Record

42%

8163-11357 (19520)

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$73.3133.1¢-$5.66

Power Rangers$33.4959.7¢+$5.48

BackTestEoCaraioCTR

Xipto Esports

Invested

$1,904.87

Value

$80.37

PnL

-$153.21

Record

62%

622-382 (1004)

lryyyARB<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$69.39

Value

$64.85

PnL

-$4.55

Record

47%

9540-10662 (20202)

Both legs:

Power Rangers$40.2467.1¢+$2.66

Xipto Esports$29.1537.9¢-$7.21

pauleta23<$100

Power Rangers

Invested

$10.21

Value

$9.57

PnL

-$0.64

Record

66%

24435-12490 (36925)

Research grade

NeutralXipto Esports at 32%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Xipto Esports

5 of 14 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Power Rangers 68%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Xipto Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.1%

32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$193.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

293.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.